But, most importantly, "Captive Audience" is
fundamentally flawed.
"Captive Audience" is flawed because
Professor Crawford relies on an incorrect – indeed, a hypothesized – view of
the communications and information services marketplace to construct the case
for monopoly power. And then she offers anachronistic, legacy regulatory measures
to remedy the supposed ills that exist in her hypothesized market. In my view,
the book more appropriately might have been titled, "Captive Thinking: Viewing Today's Telecom Industry Through An
Analog-Era Lens."
The book's central thesis is unmistakably clear: Comcast
possesses monopoly power with respect both to the provision of broadband services
and the provision of video programming. While less clear, at times it appears
Professor Crawford may be making the same monopolistic power claim with regard
to Time Warner Cable and other cable operators.
While it doesn't come until the very end of the book, the
proposed remedy for this supposed monopolistic power is unmistakably clear as
well: "America needs to move to a
utility model." Professor Crawford looks back to the days of the early
twentieth century creation of AT&T – even further back to the late
nineteenth century's railroad regulation model – to support her argument that
America needs a "utility" regulatory regime for today's broadband
companies, especially for Comcast.
Indeed, consistent with her backwards-looking focus on
public utility models, Professor Crawford equates the provision of electricity
service and broadband service. She argues that electricity service, while first
considered a luxury, soon came to be viewed as a necessity, and that broadband
is like electricity in this respect. Therefore, broadband companies, like power
companies, should be regulated as public utilities.
Among others, a central problem with Professor Crawford's argument,
however, is that the provision of electricity, at least to a large segment of
America's population, does exhibit, to a degree that differs materially from
broadband provision, natural monopoly characteristics. There are not significant
competitive facilities-based distributors of electricity to end users.
(Resellers of government-regulated wholesale services are in a different market
category, and, in my view, do not provide sustainable competition to end
users.) This lack of alternative competitive providers is not true with respect
to broadband, including video programming.
There are not alternative providers of electricity that
employ cable, wireless, telephone, or satellite network infrastructures. There
are for broadband. I dwell on the electricity analogy because, at the end of
the day (and at the end of the book!) Professor Crawford rests so much weight
on it. She considers the markets for electricity and broadband both to be
natural monopolies. I don't.
Professor Crawford's argument that cable operators like
Comcast are now monopolies is based on her assertion that "cable has
decisively won the battle for high-speed wired communications in America."
Over the decades I've learned it is wise not to be overly certain when
predicting the future course of developments in the communications marketplace.
Technological advances occur in unpredictable ways, sometimes more rapidly than
predicted, sometimes more slowly. For example, when I first got involved in
communications law and policy, there were many pundits predicting that domestic
satellites (we called them "domsats" and the FCC for years carried on
"domsat" proceedings) might become dominant providers of all forms of
communications. Today they play an important role in our communications landscape,
but they certainly are not dominant.
In support of her claim that cable already has
"decisively" won the battle, Professor Crawford engages in a bit of
sleight of hand. This is because her claim is based entirely on substantially narrowing
the market definition by defining the relevant market – and this is buried in a
footnote [page 284, note 3] – as "cable companies with DOCSIS 3.0-enabled
infrastructure that can offer very high
peak download speeds." In other words, in the few places where Professor
Crawford addresses market power and market definition in any serious way, she
distinguishes, albeit very subtly, between "high-speed" and
"very high peak download speed" broadband services. The latter only
includes services with speeds above 100 Mbps. In other places, she
distinguishes between high-speed wired broadband and what she calls "truly"
high-speed broadband.
The problem with this approach is that it doesn't reflect
present marketplace reality. Even though Professor Crawford may think otherwise,
for most consumers, telephone company-provided high-speed broadband services provide
a satisfactory alternative to those of cable operators, even in areas in which
fiber technology is not employed. Many consumers consider the broadband service
provided by satellite operators a satisfactory alternative to cable broadband.
And still other consumers consider wireless broadband services not only
complementary to cable (as Professor Crawford maintains), but substitutable as
well. This is increasingly so as high-speed 4G wireless services become more
ubiquitous.
Indeed, over 80% of American households have access to at
least two high-speed wireline providers consistent with the FCC's definition of
high-speed, even if one does not provide service, at peak times, at the
"truly" or "very" high-speed above-100 Mbps that Professor
Crawford insists on employing for market-defining purposes.
So, the problem with Professor Crawford's claim of cable
monopoly power is that it rests on a hypothesized marketplace based on an
unduly restrictive market definition, not on the broadband market as it presently
exists. Her hypothesized market definition is based on her own personal predilections
concerning the level of service she thinks she will demand in the future,
rather than on an analysis of the services consumers demand in today's actual
marketplace. Note that she does not report that when the FCC last surveyed
consumers, the agency found that 93% were satisfied with their broadband
service. And note also that right at the outset of her book [on page 2] she
predicates her assertion of Comcast's dominance on the level of service that
she hypothesizes will be sufficient to satisfy Americans "in the near
future," without explaining what that means.
It is possible – although I don't think it is likely – that the
market may evolve in the way Professor Crawford hypothesizes, that is to say
that Comcast and other cable companies come to dominate the broadband
distribution marketplace because telephone companies, wireless providers, and
satellite operators simply cannot compete for the "truly" high-speed
services that consumers may come one day to demand. I doubt this will be the
case because, barring regulatory policies that constrain ongoing investment by
cable's competitors, I expect that technological and innovation advances, along
with new business models, will continue to evolve in ways that provide
consumers with meaningful competitive alternatives that satisfy evolving consumer
demands. If I am wrong about this, there will be time enough then to consider
what remedial measures may be appropriate to prevent consumer harm.
Rather than going on at length now, I want to make a few
additional points briefly. They likely warrant more attention in subsequent
posts.
As I said at the beginning, Professor Crawford claims that
Comcast possesses dominant market power not only with respect to broadband
transmission but also with respect to video program acquisition and
distribution, although she doesn't make the latter claim with the same degree
of certainty. Although she apparently envisions a "captive audience,"
in an age of media abundance, most Americans would beg to differ. Indeed, in a
chapter describing the Comcast-NBCU merger, accompanied by broad allegations
concerning Comcast's alleged chokehold on video program distribution, Professor
Crawford pivots, declaring at page 134 that broadcasters "have more
distribution outlets for video than they had before – they can get their
programing out through satellite (Dish, DirecTV) or telco (Verizon, AT&T)
video offerings as well as cable." This concession – or at least
recognition – concerning the availability of satellite and telco video
distribution alternatives undercuts the claim that Comcast monopolizes this
market segment, whether with regard to broadcasters or other independent
programming entities looking for distribution outlets.
Now, even if Professor Crawford were to concede the
existence of alternative providers or outlets, as she seems at times to do, I'm
quite certain she would not back away from her plea for public utility
regulation of Comcast and other cable operators. This is because she would
claim, as she does throughout, that these service providers nevertheless possess
enough market power that other entities (that she happens to favor) do not
receive "fair treatment." [p. 175]. Especially with respect to
Netflix (a company she particularly favors) and other online video providers,
Professor Crawford expresses concern that these entities may not be treated
fairly. And in this regard, she targets usage-based billing offerings as an
especially egregious means of treating Netflix and other online video providers
"unfairly" because, in her view, such plans may cause users to
curtail the amount of video streamed. Thus, she argues the FCC needs to examine
cable operators' revenues, costs, quality of service, and other data – in other
words, conduct a traditional public utility rate case – to determine the
ultimate "fairness" of usage-based billing.
We have explained many times on these pages why this plea
for the FCC to conduct what, in effect, would amount to an old-fashioned rate
case is a recipe for disaster. Usage-based billing plans are employed
throughout the economy to enhance economic efficiency by using the price
mechanism to allocate scarce resources, here limited bandwidth capacity. Employing
price signals this way promotes overall consumer welfare. Not coincidently, to
the extent Professor Crawford is really concerned about "fairness" to
consumers, and not merely to Netflix, such plans may be fairer to consumers
than non-usage-based plans because consumers' charges are more nearly aligned
with the costs they impose on the network. Here I am just going to refer you to
the recent
FSF Perspectives published
by Daniel Lyons, a member of FSF's Board of Academic Advisors, entitled
"Why
Broadband Pricing Freedom Is Good for Consumers." Please review.
Professor Crawford's single-minded focus on
"fairness" for Netflix and others who ride on top of broadband
operators' networks, and the supposed harm these "on-toppers" might
experience under usage-based billing plans, means there is little
acknowledgment that, having invested billions of dollars in building and maintaining
their networks, broadband providers are entitled to a fair return on their
invested capital.
Again, Professor Crawford's book is interesting and informative in many respects,
especially with regard to some of the historical information concerning the
companies and industry leaders she discusses. At times, it is even gossipy, and
this can be entertaining.
But "Captive Audience" is fundamentally flawed
because the call for public utility regulation of cable companies is based on
an incorrect view of the market. Only by hypothesizing market developments that
she predicts – wrongly in my view – will come to pass in the future is Professor
Crawford able to construct an argument that provokes her reach back into
history for ill-conceived remedial measures. The call for public utility
regulation may have been appropriate for the early analog-era of Theodore Vail
and the late nineteenth century's railroad magnates. But Professor Crawford's
plea to apply such utility regulation to broadband providers operating in
today's dynamic digital environment should be rejected.