Cisco's valuable Annual Internet Report projects significant growth in connected devices by 2023, and much of the growth in data traffic flowing to and from those devices will be video. As the Report observes: "Video devices, in particular, can have a multiplier effect on traffic." The report projects significant growth in smartphones as well as connected TVs such as flat-panel screens, smart Blu-ray players, gaming consoles, and other video devices. The report estimates that 66% of installed flat-panel TVs will be Ultra-High-Definition (UHD) or 4K, up from 33% in 2018. The bit rate for UHD video streaming is 15-18 Mbps, more than double the rate for HD.
Importantly, Cisco's report projects growth in mobile connection speeds that will more than match that higher bit rate requirement for UHD video streaming on smartphones and other connected devices. According to the report, the average mobile download speed will increase from 13.8 Mbps in 2018 to 43.9 Mbps by 2023. Moreover, North America's average mobile connection speed is projected to climb to 58.4 Mbps by 2023, up from 21.6 Mbps in 2018. And average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 100 Mbps by 2023.
Improving capacity for mobile viewing on enhanced 4G LTE networks and 5G networks will strengthen consumer perception of the substitutability of wireless for wireline services. Expect to hear more on this issue of substitution in a Free State Foundation paper later this spring.
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