On November 26,
2018, Cisco released its Visual Network
Index (VNI): Forecast and Trends, 2017-2022. This annual report is useful to
policymakers, entrepreneurs, and consumers because it projects growth of broadband
devices and network technologies at the national, continental, and global level. Given
the projections, the report should be particularly useful in getting
policymakers to focus on the need to remove regulatory and other impediments to
deploying broadband infrastructure. Cisco deserves credit for producing this
valuable resource.
According to
Cisco, the significant rise in Internet traffic experienced over the past decade
or so is expected to continue for the next five years as connections increase
and networks expand. The proliferation of video applications is by far the most
significant driving force behind exponentially increasing Internet traffic. On
a global level, video traffic comprised 75% of Internet data in 2017 and it
will increase to 82% by 2022. In the United States, video traffic comprised 81%
of all Internet traffic in 2017 and it will increase to 82% by 2022.
As the graph below
shows, global Internet traffic will grow threefold from 2017 to 2022, at the
same rate as Internet traffic growth in the United States.
Global Internet Traffic: Cisco Forecasts 396 Exabytes
per Month by 2022
Overall, the
amount of Internet traffic and the number of users and devices throughout the
world is astounding. By 2022, there will be 4.8 billion Internet users (60% of
the global population), up from 3.4 billion in 2017. And those users will connect
to 28.5 billion networked devices, up from 18 billion in 2017. In the United
States by 2022, there will be 317 million Internet users (94% of the
population) connecting to 4.6 billion networked devices. That means there will
be 13.6 networked devices per capita by 2022, up from 8.1 per capita in 2017.
The graph below
shows the extraordinary global growth projected across all Internet-enabled
devices.
Global Devices and Connections Growth,
2017 - 2022
While overall
Internet traffic and devices are growing at a phenomenal rate, mobile traffic is
growing twice as fast as fixed traffic. The United States has been a leader in
the growth of mobile traffic, which is expected to increase fivefold from 2017
to 2022. Over that same span, global mobile traffic is expected to grow even
faster than the U.S. mobile traffic.
Here are some key
findings regarding the growth of mobile broadband throughout the world:
- Average smartphone usage will grow from 5.1 GB per month in 2017 to 26.1 GB per month in 2022.
- Global mobile traffic will increase sevenfold between 2017 and 2022.
- Global mobile traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as fixed Internet traffic from 2017 to 2022.
- Video will comprise 79% of global mobile traffic by 2022, compared to just 59% in 2017.
- Global mobile traffic by 2022 will be equivalent to 38x the volume of the entire global Internet in 2005.
Here are some of
the key findings regarding the growth of mobile broadband in the United States:
- The average mobile connection speed will grow threefold from 2017 to 2022, reaching 39 Mbps.
- U.S. mobile traffic will reach 5.7 exabytes per month by 2022, up from 1.2 exabytes per month in 2017.
- U.S. mobile traffic will grow fivefold from 2017 to 2022, a compound annual growth rate of 36%.
- U.S. mobile traffic will grow two times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2017 to 2022.
- U.S. mobile traffic by 2022 will be equivalent to 12x the volume of the entire U.S. Internet in 2005.
The United States has
been a global leader in mobile device innovation and the deployment of mobile
broadband networks. Advanced 4G networks offer exponentially
superior reliability, capacity, speeds, and security for mobile traffic
compared to previous mobile network technologies. Now, we are on the cusp of deploying
5G mobile network technology, which will deliver speeds at least 10 times
faster than 4G and enable “smart cities” to more
efficiently use local services such as energy, utilities, transportation, and
public safety. Deployment of 5G technology is expected to create 3 million jobs and $500
billion in annual economic activity.
Since my February 2017 blog regarding Cisco’s
most recent mobile traffic update, the FCC has adopted a number of items that
should spur innovation and investment in U.S. broadband networks, both mobile
and fixed. Adoption of the Restoring
Internet Freedom Order, proposed in May 2017, repealed the public utility-style
regulations imposed in the Title II Order.
Internet service providers increased
broadband investment in 2017 after a two-year decline. Moreover, the
FCC has adopted a number of wireless and wireline infrastructure items that
remove state and local regulatory barriers. These should accelerate 5G wireless
deployment. (See here and here.) Lastly, the
Commission has identified a number of spectrum bands for commercial assignment
and allocation, which will be tremendously valuable as consumers continue to
demand more mobile data. (See here and here.)
Again, Cisco’s
report is an important tool. It should help U.S. policymakers understand that mobile
and fixed data services require additional spectrum to match the forecasted
growth and to make the social and economic benefits of 5G a reality. To promote
5G and the emergence of other broadband technologies, policymakers at the
federal, state, and local levels must avoid imposing unnecessary new regulatory
burdens and continue to remove existing ones. Also, Congress and the FCC should
continue to remove, or at least minimize, impediments to infrastructure
investments in order to ensure continued innovation and growth in the dynamically
competitive market for broadband services.
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