The June 2020 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report has just been released. The report contains growth projections for 5G subscriptions and mobile traffic on both mobile wireless networks and fixed wireless networks through 2025.
Among the report's forecasts:
- Global 5G subscriptions will top 190 million by the end of 2020 and reach 2.8 billion by the end of 2025.
- Fixed wireless access (FWA) connections will grow threefold and reach close to 160 million by the end of 2025 – comprising 25% of global mobile network data traffic.
- Mobile traffic will grow 31% annually between 2019 and 2025.
- Video traffic in mobile networks will grow by around 30% annually up to 2025, and it will account for nearly 75% of mobile data traffic – up from about 60% in 2019.
- "LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology by subscription during the forecast period. It is projected to peak in 2022 at 5.1 billion subscriptions and decline to around 4.4 billion subscriptions by the end of 2025 as more subscribers migrate to 5G."
- VoLTE [Voice-over-LTE] subscriptions will reach 3 billion at the end of 2020 and 6.4 billion by the end of 2025, accounting for almost 90% of all combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
The latter forecast is important because, as the report observes: "VoLTE (using IP Multimedia Subsystem, or IMS) is also the foundation for enabling 5G voice calls, SMS, rich communications services (RCS), and new communication services on 5G devices."
The report also includes a couple noteworthy forecasts for North America:
- "North America’s LTE penetration is currently 92 percent, which is the highest share globally."
- "By the end of 2025, we anticipate close to 325 million 5G subscriptions in the region, accounting for 74 percent of mobile subscriptions."
- Mobile data traffic per smartphone will climb from 8.5 GB per month in 2019 to 45 GB per month in 2025, a 32% compound annual growth rate.
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