Ericsson Reports on Present and Future Growth of Mobile Services

The June 2023 edition of the "Ericsson Mobility Report" was released on June 23. The updated report features high-level view of global and regional developments and trends in mobile data services as well as projected growth forecasts. Although the June 2023 report does not include any figures specific to the United States, it does contain many useful insights regarding mobile data traffic increases, progress in 5G deployment, and potential growth in fixed wireless access (FWA) for the globe and for North America.

Among the report's findings, "[t]he uptake of 5G subscriptions in North America has been stronger than expected," and year's-end 2022 it had the highest 5G subscription penetration at 41%. Included in the report is a chart showing the disappearance of legacy 3G services in North America and strong growth in 4G LTE as well as 5G. Yet although 4G subscriptions increased in 2022, the report expects those numbers to decline starting this year. According to the report's projection, in 2028, North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 91%.

The report credits the use of mid-band spectrum in North American for strong 5G services growth, and it expects there to be over 250 million subscriptions by the end of this year. And the report projects there to be about 410 million 5G subscriptions by 2028. Important to this 5G growth is FWA services. The report observes that "FWA, providing high-speed internet to homes and small businesses, has become the primary technology fueling fixed broadband growth in North America." 

 

Moreover, the report projects that average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone in North American will rise to 58 GB in 2029, and it credits this to unlimited data plans and improved 5G network capacity supporting new mobile and FWA 5G subscribers. 

 

Notably, the report also found that monthly global mobile data traffic reached 126 exabytes (EB) by the first quarter of this year – nearly double what it was just two years prior.  

 

But in order to fully support projected future increases in mobile data traffic in the U.S. – as well as support potential stronger-than-expected growth in 5G services – more spectrum will need to be made available for private commercial use. Now that the U.S. spectrum pipeline for commercial wireless services has run empty and the FCC's authority for conducting competitive bidding spectrum license auctions has lapsed, the clear policy priority should be to replenish the pipeline with more mid-band spectrum from commercial licensing and to renew the Commission's authority conduct auctions and license spectrum use on an exclusive basis. 

Ericsson Report Spotlights 5G's Second Wave

The latest "Ericsson Mobility Report" was released on November 30. The report summarizes the progress of wireless services on a global as well as regional bases, along with future growth forecasts. The report summarizes the progress of the U.S. in repurposing spectrum for wireless services, particular in the mid-band:

The US is one of a few countries that has significant 5G deployments across low-, mid- and high-band frequencies. Launched in April 2019, 5G services were first available in high- and low-bands. Ten service providers have deployed 5G on low-band, covering over 95 percent of the US population. High-band 5G services are available in 90 cities. The Federal Communication Commission subsequently allocated mid-bands over the course of several auctions during 2020–2022. Currently the three national service providers are rapidly deploying 5G mid-band networks nationwide. Around 80 percent mid-band population coverage is projected by the end of 2022. 

Most of the report's information pertaining to the U.S. is encapsulated in its data for North America:

5G is in the second wave of build-outs and user adoption. The addition of mid-band spectrums now enables superior multi-band 5G experiences for many users. In 2022, 5G adoption continued to grow strongly, with more than 140 million subscriptions expected by the year-end. High-speed internet access to homes and small businesses with Fixed Wireless Access has become the primary technology fueling fixed broadband growth in North America. 5G is also growing in the enterprise segment with wireless WAN to branch office locations and to serve ultra-mobile professions. By 2028, around 420 million 5G subscriptions are expected, accounting for over 90 percent of mobile subscriptions. 

Among the report's forecasts, 5G subscription penetration is expected to reach 35% in North America by the end of this year. And average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone is expected to reach 55 GB in 2028. 

For more statistics and projections regarding wireless services, see the November 2022 edition of the "Ericsson Mobility Report." 

Ericsson Projects 5G Dominance of Mobile Services in 2027

On November 30, the newest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report was released. The report takes a global and regional outlook, so no United States-specific forecasts or data points are offered. But the report does detail an ongoing dramatic increase in 5G services in technologies that will take place in North America:

In North America, 5G commercialization is moving at a rapid pace. Service providers have launched commercial 5G services, focusing on mobile broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA). The addition of C-band spectrum will secure consistent 5G user experiences. FWA will play a key role in closing the digital divide where the pandemic has exposed large gaps for education, remote working and small businesses. By 2027, more than 410 million 5G subscriptions are anticipated in the region, accounting for 90 percent of mobile subscriptions. 

According to Ericsson's forecast for 2027, 5G subscriptions in North America will be higher than any other region. Currently, North America is second in 5G subscriptions to North East Asia. And 20% of current mobile subscriptions in North America are 5G. Apparently, stronger than expected demand is due in part to decreasing prices for 5G devices. Additionally:

The average monthly mobile data usage in North America is expected to reach 52GB per smartphone in 2027. A smartphone-savvy consumer base and video-rich applications, in combination with large data plans, will drive traffic growth. While there may be strong growth in traffic per smartphone in the near term, the adoption of immersive consumer services using AR/VR is expected to lead to even higher growth in the long term. 

For more, including interesting projections for deployments of commercial 5G-native voice (VoNR) services and other 5G technologies, check out the Ericsson Mobility Report. 

Ericsson Mobility Report Looks at the Next 5 Years of 5G

The latest iteration of the Ericsson Mobility Report was released on November 30. This new report spotlights recent progress in 5G network deployments on a regional as well as global basis. And the report offers growth projections for fixed and wireless mobile services for the next five years. 

The Ericsson Mobility Report takes a primarily international outlook, forecasting 3.5 billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2026. However, the report includes some analyses and projections for wireless services in North America: 

In North America, 5G commercialization is moving at a rapid pace. Service providers have already launched commercial 5G services, focused on mobile broadband. The introduction of 5G smartphones supporting all three spectrum bands will make 2021 an eventful year for early 5G adopters. FWA [fixed wireless access] will play a key role in closing the digital divide where the pandemic has exposed large gaps for education, remote working and small businesses. By 2026, more than 340 million 5G subscriptions are anticipated in the region, accounting for 80 percent of mobile subscriptions. 

Looking at mobile subscriptions in North America, the report found that 5% are for 5G services and 89% are for 4G LTE services. By 2026, it is expected that 5G services will comprise 80% of mobile subscriptions in North America and 4G will comprise the remaining 20%. Additionally, the report tracked growth in the regional percentage of North American service providers offering fixed wireless access. Provider offerings of fixed wireless increased from 70% in February 2020 to 80% by October 2020. And the report projects that mobile data traffic per smartphone in North America will jump from 11.8 GB per month to 49 GB per month – a compound annual growth rate of 27%. Also: "In 2026, 5G subscription penetration is set to be the highest of all regions at 80 percent."

 

Regarding the United States, the report acknowledged that 5G coverage build-out spans three-categories: 1) New bands in the sub-6GHz range; 2) mmWave frequency bands; and 3) Existing LTE bands. The report concludes that this approach has resulted in 5G coverage "for a large part of the population."

 

But as Free State Foundation Scholars have pointed out in recent publications, there's plenty that Congress and the FCC ought to do to accelerate 5G deployment in the U.S. For starters, check out "Congress Should Fund Needed Broadband Maps This Session," a Perspectives from FSF Scholars paper by FSF President Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long. Also see my Perspectives paper, "The FCC Should Promote Timely Transitions to Next-Gen Broadband."

Ericsson Mobility Report Forecasts Future Growth of LTE and 5G

The June 2020 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report has just been released. The report contains growth projections for 5G subscriptions and mobile traffic on both mobile wireless networks and fixed wireless networks through 2025. 

Among the report's forecasts:

• Global 5G subscriptions will top 190 million by the end of 2020 and reach 2.8 billion by the end of 2025. 
• Fixed wireless access (FWA) connections will grow threefold and reach close to 160 million by the end of 2025 – comprising 25% of global mobile network data traffic. 
• Mobile traffic will grow 31% annually between 2019 and 2025.
• Video traffic in mobile networks will grow by around 30% annually up to 2025, and it will account for nearly 75% of mobile data traffic – up from about 60% in 2019.
• "LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology by subscription during the forecast period. It is projected to peak in 2022 at 5.1 billion subscriptions and decline to around 4.4 billion subscriptions by the end of 2025 as more subscribers migrate to 5G."
• VoLTE [Voice-over-LTE] subscriptions will reach 3 billion at the end of 2020 and 6.4 billion by the end of 2025, accounting for almost 90% of all combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.

The latter forecast is important because, as the report observes: "VoLTE (using IP Multimedia Subsystem, or IMS) is also the foundation for enabling 5G voice calls, SMS, rich communications services (RCS), and new communication services on 5G devices."

The report also includes a couple noteworthy forecasts for North America:

• "North America’s LTE penetration is currently 92 percent, which is the highest share globally."
• "By the end of 2025, we anticipate close to 325 million 5G subscriptions in the region, accounting for 74 percent of mobile subscriptions." 
• Mobile data traffic per smartphone will climb from 8.5 GB per month in 2019 to 45 GB per month in 2025, a 32% compound annual growth rate. 

Ericsson ConsumerLab Report Projects Increase in Mobile Video

Today, Ericsson released its 2017 edition of the ConsumerLab TV and Media Report, showing significant growth in the proliferation of mobile video. Here are some of the key findings from the report:

• By 2020, 50% of all TV and video viewing will take place on a mobile screen (tablets, smartphones and laptops), an increase of 85% since 2010.

• In 2017, nearly 60% of viewers prefer on-demand viewing over scheduled linear TV viewing, an increase of around 50% since 2010. By 2020, linear and video on demand viewing will be almost equal.

• The average number of used on-demand services has increased from 1.6 in 2012 to 3.8 services in 2017 per person.

• By 2020, one in three consumers will be Virtual Reality users.

The significant increase in consumer demand for mobile video is the main reason that Cisco projected mobile data to increase fivefold from 2016 to 2021.  This explosion in demand combined with effective wireless competition produces enormous enhancements in consumer welfare.