Study Predicts Near Doubling of Wireless IoT Market by 2026

A new study from Juniper Research makes noteworthy projections about the future of 5G in the American economy. The study, titled Cellular IoT: Strategies, Opportunities & Market Forecasts 2022-2026, predicts that the wireless Internet of Things (IoT) market will nearly double in revenue by 2026. Juniper Research predicts that low power wide area (LPWA) connections will comprise most of the IoT market growth, with strong growth also coming from 5G connections.

The study finds that "the global value of the cellular IoT market will reach $61 billion by 2026; rising from $31 billion in 2022." This is a 95% value increase. That growth will come from two main areas: 5G and LPWA.

A remote sensor

Juniper projects that 5G revenues will total roughly $9 billion in 2026, a strong 1000% growth from the roughly $800 million in 2021. Juniper noted "network slicing and edge computing" as important services for boosting 5G revenue growth during this period.

Juniper also projects that LPWA connections will grow 1200% by 2026, fueled by low costs for connectivity and hardware. LPWA adoption accounts for a larger portion of Juniper's predicted IoT market growth than 5G. LPWA networks typically involve low-bandwidth devices connected to low-power LTE. The advantage of LPWA networks is strong coverage over a geographic area, including penetration of building walls, for low-bandwidth uses. An example of a LPWA use case is a network of remote monitoring sensors, often useful for industries such as agriculture and manufacturing.

House Subcommittee Approves the Smart IoT Act

This week, the House Digital Commerce and Consumer Protection Subcommittee approved the State of Modern Application, Research, and Trends of Internet of Things Act, or the “Smart IoT Act” (H.R. 6032), which will now proceed to a markup in the full committee. The Smart IoT Act would create a one-stop shop for industry best practices and standards, analyze the federal government’s need for IoT devices and services, and avoid duplicative regulations that could slow innovation.

Subcommittee Chairman Bob Latta (R-OH) made the following statement: “The SMART IoT Act is a critical first step to future IoT policy efforts. As we serve on this subcommittee, we have the opportunity to look 5 years, and farther, into the future to see where technology is headed. We have an obligation to do what we can to promote innovation, American competitiveness and technological advancements that benefit consumers. The SMART IoT Act does just that.”

Time for NTIA and FCC to Act on Ligado's Application for Advanced IoT Network

NTIA and the FCC have an opportunity to jump-start a new wave of broadband innovation that will boost economic productivity and consumer welfare. On May 31, Ligado Networks filed an amendment to its application to deploy a hybrid terrestrial-satellite network in the L-Band that will provide “Internet of Things” services and boost America’s position in the global race to 5G. The amendment is aimed at providing protection to certified aviation Global Positioning System (GPS) devices from signal interference by reducing power levels for downlinks to Ligado’s base stations. 

In its role as manager of the federal government’s use of spectrum, NTIA is tasked with evaluating Ligado’s application and coordinating the Executive Branch’s response. And the FCC has final approval authority over Ligado’s license application. Each agency should promptly carry out its responsibilities so that a final decision can be made on Ligado’s application.

Since emerging from bankruptcy in 2015, from all indications, Ligado has cooperated with federal agencies in testing technologies and techniques to resolve claimed interference issues. And, it appears that, based on extensive efforts, Ligado has resolved most signal interference issues, or at least reduced their scope. In light of the progress that has been made, NTIA and the FCC should be in a position to make a final decision on Ligado’s application soon. Otherwise, the L-band spectrum will remain unused, resulting in untold billions in lost opportunity costs.   

Ligado’s proposed terrestrial-satellite hybrid network is poised to play an indispensable role in the deployment of advanced IoT networks. By providing enterprises real-time communications with connected devices and sensor-embedded equipment, IoT services can enable precision manufacturing as well as heavy industrial operations that require pinpoint accuracy. The proposed service would operate advanced satellite technology in combination with terrestrial mobile technology using L-band spectrum. Due to its propagation characteristics, which includes reliable in-building penetration and cost-efficient widespread geographic coverage, this mid-band spectrum is considered highly suitable for IoT services. If approved, Ligado’s network would cover North America.

Additionally, Ligado’s proposed terrestrial-satellite hybrid network would accelerate 5G mobile broadband deployment. Ligado’s mid-band spectrum is already licensed for mobile-satellite (MSS) use, but it has long gone unused. Ligado seeks modification of its spectrum licenses that would add a total of 40 MHz of spectrum for terrestrial commercial mobile use. If the Commission permits Ligado’s mid-band spectrum to be used for commercial mobile use, that mid-band spectrum would complement low-band spectrum that was repurposed for commercial mobile use pursuant to the Commission’s 2017 incentive auction. The potential for commercial ventures that make use of both bands will increase the attractiveness of investment in 5G network infrastructure. 

Accenture has projected that global IoT-related real GDP contributions will total $10.6 trillion dollars by 2030. A May 2016 report (PDF page 39 and following) by economist Coleman Bazelon projected that Ligado’s network would generate between $250 and $500 billion in social welfare benefits by relieving growing demand pressure for mobile wireless broadband services. For its part, Ligado has publicly stated its intent to invest $800 million in satellite and terrestrial network infrastructure, thereby creating approximately 8,000 jobs.

Although the FCC has the ultimate authority to act on Ligado’s application, a timely positive evaluation of that application by NTIA, as a practical matter, apparently is a necessary predicate. NTIA is the federal government agency with primary responsibility for spectrum policy. NTIA Administrator David Redl deserves credit for recognizing the need to put L-band spectrum into use in a timely fashion while, at the same time, trying to ensure, to the extent feasible, that government operations in adjacent bands are protected. 

In a written answer to questions connected to his March 2017 confirmation hearing, Mr. Redl explained: “Protection of GPS has been, and should be, a priority for NTIA. However, that does not mean that the remainder of the L-band cannot be maximized for other uses.” He emphasized the need to coordinate between spectrum users “to best ensure no part of the spectrum goes underused.” It is important now for NTIA to do whatever it can so Ligado’s application to deploy a hybrid terrestrial-satellite network can be acted on by the FCC. 

Ligado has cooperated with federal agencies in testing technologies and addressing potential spectrum signal interference issues with GPS operations. Ligado has also reached agreements with major GPS providers on technical measures to avoid signal interference. For instance, Ligado agreed to establish what is effectively a new 23 MHz guard band for GPS services by relinquishing its terrestrial mobile service authorization for the spectrum band nearest to the GPS allocation. Now, Ligado’s May 31 amendment to its application will further reduce downlink power levels to avoid signal interference with certified aviation GPS devices. With all the progress that has been made to date to resolve interference claims, it is incumbent on NTIA and the FCC to act with dispatch now so that Ligado’s application can finally be resolved.

Given the tremendous value of the L-band spectrum and the potential economic benefits – potentially in the hundreds of billions of dollars – to be realized from putting it to use, further delay in considering Ligado’s hybrid terrestrial-satellite network application is costly. Acting on the application presents an opportunity to further America’s advancement in the global race to 5G and to enable next-generation IoT services. 

Ligado Takes Another Positive Step

On May 31, Ligado filed an amendment to its pending Federal Communications Commission license modification application advising the agency of further steps it has taken to protect aviation GPS devices from claimed interference. This is another in a series of steps that Ligado has taken since the company emerged from bankruptcy several years ago as it works, constructively it seems, to resolve potential interference issues that thus far have delayed putting the L-band spectrum to productive use.

We plan to take a closer look in the near future at where matters stand. But, as an immediate reaction to Ligado’s latest filing, there is no gainsaying that the deployment of advanced wireless services like those it proposes should provide substantial public interest benefits. As Valerie Green, Ligado’s Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer declared in a May 31 blog announcing the filing of the amendment: “Next-generation wireless networks – connecting an entire new category of IoT-enabled devices, sensors, and machines  – are projected to create three million new jobs and give the economy a $500 billion boost. Our 40 MHz of mid-band spectrum will help get our country there and regain ground in the global race to 5G.”

In today’s fast-paced marketplace environment – and with much at stake for the economy with regard to 5G deployment – it’s important, even imperative, that NTIA, indeed the entire Administration, and the FCC, work to ensure that Ligado’s proposal receives prompt consideration.

The Race for 5G and Why It's Important

Two new reports relating to 5G deployment have just been released that deserve much attention.  The first, by Analysys Mason, is titled, “Global Race to 5G – Spectrum and Infrastructure Plans and Priorities.” The second, by Recon Analytics, is titled “How America’s 4G Leadership Propelled the U.S. Economy.” Both reports were commissioned by CTIA.

Given the importance of the development of next generation, high capacity 5G networks to the nation’s social and economic well-being, these two new reports warrant a deep dive. We expect that over the coming weeks and months we’ll come back to them often.

Based on a quick look, here are a few key takeaways:

• China and South Korea presently are leading the U.S. in the race to develop and deploy 5G networks, but their lead is slim.

• America’s wireless industry still leads other nations in making commercial investments that are necessary for 5G deployment, so this bodes well for our nation’s prospects.

• The research shows that the race, or competition, if you will, to deploy 5G networks matters because the U.S. leadership in deploying 4G led to economic growth and employment gains that otherwise would have gone to other countries. Presumably, the same will be true for 5G.

All of this is not to say that the 5G “race” is a zero-sum game. Of course, other nations will benefit – and should – as they get ready to deploy 5G networks. But it is to say that the U.S. stands to gain much – from increased investment in infrastructure to new jobs in new fields to yet-to-be imagined “Internet of Things” technologies and services -- by maintaining its leadership in the wireless space. Just as America did with 4G.

So, again, the two new reports are worthy of careful consideration. It is not necessary to vouch for every estimate or projection in the reports – we don’t really know now whether ultimately 5G networks will add $500 billion to our economy or $450 or $550 billion! – to appreciate the importance of the coming of 5G. The scale of 5G’s ultimate impact is clear.

And so it follows, as night follows day, or 5G follows 4G, that it is crucial that our nation’s policymakers, in Congress, at the FCC, in the Trump Administration, put in place proper policies to ensure adequate spectrum availability and infrastructure deployment.  

5G Will Be a Technological Leap Forward for Consumers

A March 2018 policy paper by Nokia highlights the benefits of 5G networks to consumers and describes 5G’s role as an enabler of the Internet of Things:

• “5G will offer an expected peak data rate higher than 2 Gbit/s initially and ultimately as high as 10-20 Gbit/s compared to the 300 Mbit/s LTE can offer today, combined with virtually zero latency, meaning that the radio interface will not be the bottleneck even for the most challenging use cases.”
• “5G will support applications and industries of the future such as innovative health care services, self-driving cars and the next generation of industry automation.
• “5G supports the huge growth of machine-to-machine type communication, also called Internet of Things (IoT), through flexibility, low costs and low consumption of energy. At the same time, 5G will be reliable and quick enough for mission-critical wireless control and automation tasks such as self-driving cars.”
• “5G will lower costs and the consumption of energy. Energy efficiency is an integral part of the design paradigm of 5G.”

The policy paper also includes spectrum management, universal service, taxation, and other recommendations for Congress, the FCC, and NTIA to consider in an effort to promote 5G deployment.