T-Mobile/UScellular Transaction Ripe for Agency Action

According to the FCC's website (see graphic below), the agency's review of the $4.4 billion T-Mobile/UScellular transaction has entered its final month. The record evidence overwhelmingly indicates that consumers, including but not limited to current UScellular customers, would be better off if this deal were approved. Therefore, action prior to the end of the 180-day shot clock is warranted.

In an Opposition to Petitions to Deny filed on January 8, 2025, FSF President Randolph May and Director of Policy Studies and Senior Fellow Seth Cooper expressed their view that the proposed transaction likely would produce pro-competitive benefits, benefits that would outweigh any potential harms. They also noted that arguments against the transaction generally lack supporting evidence and/or a specific nexus to the instant transaction.

T-Mobile and UScellular, GN Docket No. 24-286

Source: fcc.gov

As Mr. Cooper described in a post to the FSF Blog shortly after the parties filed their Public Interest Statement on September 13, 2025, that regulatory filing "presents a prima facie case that [the] proposed transaction … will bring public interest benefits that outweigh any potential competitive concerns."

Tangible benefits identified and documented include faster 5G mobile broadband speeds, higher data capacity, and greater availability of fixed wireless access (FWA) home broadband service, especially in rural areas.

Potential harms, meanwhile, are unlikely given the robust competition that exists in the mobile broadband marketplace, a landscape documented by the Free State Foundation in June 2024 comments to the FCC for its 2024 Communications Marketplace Competition Report. Consumers can choose between three nationwide providers, EchoStar's upstart network that is available to over 70 percent of the U.S. population, mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) such as Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile, and regional providers.

Potential harms also would be mitigated by the specific nature of this transaction – in particular, the relative disparity in their respective subscriber bases (126 million versus 4.5 million), the limited extent to which the parties directly compete (as Mr. Cooper pointed out in a February 2025 blog post, the parties "apparently do not have an overlapping competitive presence in thirty-seven percent (37%) of the Cellular Marketing Areas (CMAs) implicated by the proposed deal"), and the fact that T-Mobile sets "its pricing and service terms on a nationwide basis."

In addition, approval of this transaction would enable the efficient and timely reallocation of spectrum to its highest and best use while we wait for Congress to renew the Commission's auction authority – a priority Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-TX) discussed in his Keynote Address at the Free State Foundation's recent Seventeenth Annual Policy Conference (video available here).

FWA Make Further Strides, More Spectrum and Cell Sites Needed

In today's communications market, cross-platform competition is exemplified by fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband services. In the third quarter of 2024, consumer adoption of both FWA continued strong. 

According to a report in Light Reading, in the third quarter of 2024, Verizon had 2.67 million FWA subscribers – 1.64 million residences and 1.03 million for businesses. And a report at SDxCentral indicates that AT&T Air gained about 135,000 subscribers to its Internet Air FWA service, for a total of about 500,000. T-Mobile reported gaining 541,000 subscribers to its Home 5G FWA service during the quarter, bringing its reported total to over 6 million.  

 

Further growth is expected. It is reported in Fierce Network that Verizon plans to expand its C-band spectrum to 70% of its planned footprint by the end of this year and to double its FWA footprint to 90 million homes and businesses by 2028. Also, it's reported in Light Reading that New Street Research has predicted T-Mobile will add 1.45 million FWA subscribers next year, Verizon will add 1.3 million, and AT&T will add about 550,000. SDxCentral reported that T-Mobile has a goal of serving 12 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2028, and Verizon has a goal of serving 9 million by 2028. 

 

For the FCC, particularly under its prospective new membership in the second Trump Administration, increasing access to spectrum and ensuring streamlined permitting processes for constructing wireless infrastructure will be keys to realizing the future potential of FWA as a high-quality service and competitive choice for residential broadband subscribers in America. 

 

In July 2024 public comments to the FCC for its forthcoming Communications Marketplace Competition Report, Free State Foundation President May and I wrote:

To further promote competition, innovation, and investment in the broadband marketplace, the Commission should work proactively to make more spectrum available for commercial use and by removing regulatory barriers to broadband deployment… There is particularly strong demand for additional mid-band spectrum. The Commission ought to prioritize the lower 3.1-3.45 GHz band for study and prompt repurposing… Although proposals for repurposing different bands are at different stages of development and each faces unique challenges, the Commission should advance every proposal for spectrum that may realistically be suitable for commercial uses – whether on a licensed or unlicensed basis. A larger spectrum supply will enable more competitors to serve more Americans with next-gen services. 

For now, there is no spectrum in the pipeline for commercial services. A priority for the incoming Trump Administration will be to replenish that authority and restore the FCC's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions. Meanwhile, as indicated by an article in Fierce Networks, network densification – including constructing additional cell towers and other infrastructure – may be one way to expand network capacity while mid-band spectrum remains scarce. 

MT with Mike O'Rielly – Ep 11: Wireless Broadband & BEAD

Episode 11 of "TMT with Mike O'Rielly," a videocast featuring former FCC Commissioner and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Free State Foundation Michael O'Rielly, was released on September 26. In the episode, titled "WISPs' Wireless Broadband Offerings & BEAD Funding," Mr. O'Rielly is joined by guest David Zumwalt, President and CEO of WISPA – The Association for Broadband Without Boundaries. The conversation touches on matters such as spectrum, concerns about the Biden Administration’s favoritism for fiber in implementing the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) Program and the subsequent change to that policy, concerns about federal subsidies being used to overbuild in areas already being served by small wireless providers, and more. 

T-Mobile/UScellular Transaction Likely to Benefit Wireless 5G Consumers

On September 13, T-Mobile filed a public interest statement with the FCC in support of its proposed transaction with US Cellular. If approved, the T-Mobile/UScellular transaction likely would produce pro-competitive results. The merger would benefit UScellular subscribers by giving them access to a 5G mobile wireless network with faster speeds and higher data capacity. It also would enhance residential broadband competition by expanding consumer access in UScellular's service regions, especially in rural areas. On its face, the proposed combination does not appear to pose any significant competitive harm. The Commission should conduct a timely review of the T-Mobile/UScellular transaction and issue its decision within the agency’s 180-day shot clock.

The proposed T-Mobile/UScellular deal reportedly would result in T-Mobile acquiring UScellular's wireless operations, subscribers, and about 30% of its spectrum licenses for $4.4 billion. UScellular is a multi-regional wireless provider that serves about 4.5 million subscribers – or about 1% of the nation’s mobile wireless services market. Its subscribership has been declining in recent years. Strong competition from cable hybrid wireless mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile partly account for US Cellular's declines. Moreover, UScellular has lagged behind AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon – the three major nationwide mobile wireless providers in 5G network deployment.

Revenue reductions resulting from subscriber losses, as well as the burdens of servicing $2.9 billion in debts, are limiting its resources for future network investment. If UScellular were to continue operating as a standalone mobile provider, its competitiveness would probably diminish further.

T-Mobile's public interest statement presents a prima facie case that its proposed transaction with UScellular will bring public interest benefits that outweigh any potential competitive concerns. Today's dynamic wireless market provides the analytical context for the proposed T-Mobile/UScellular deal. As explained in the Free State Foundation’s June 2024 public comments to the FCC for its forthcoming 2024 Communications Marketplace Competition Report, there is effective competition among the mobile wireless segment of the broadband market. In 2022 and 2023, the three nationwide wireless providers significantly upgraded and expanded their 5G network coverage. Additionally, aspiring national provider EchoStar (which recently acquired DISH Network) announced in March of this year that its 5G network covers over 70% of the U.S. population. The large footprints of Xfinity Mobile and Spectrum Mobile also support competitive 5G wireless services to at least 16 million subscribers and counting.

Moreover, the T-Mobile/UScellular transaction is unlikely to reduce wireless competition. T-Mobile faces little challenge from UScellular due to its small market share, with a footprint that spans only about 10% of the nation's geographic territory. T-Mobile is the second-largest wireless provider, with nearly 126 million total subscriptions versus UScellular's 4.5 million. T-Mobile makes its pricing and service terms on a nationwide basis, and thus UScellular's presence in a given area is unlikely to impact T-Mobile's price offerings. According to the public interest statement, T-Mobile and UScellular do not have an overlapping competitive presence in only about 37% of the Cellular Marketing Areas (CMAs) that are implicated by the proposed transaction.* If the it is approved, most consumers would continue to have choices among nationwide providers T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T, and many consumers also would have choices among DISH Wireless and a cable wireless MVNO. 

Furthermore, T-Mobile's analysis indicates that the proposed acquisition of 30% of UScellular's spectrum portfolio would not trigger the FCC's spectrum screen analytical trigger in any cellular marketing area. This presumes that T-Mobile completes planned sales of certain spectrum licenses that it currently holds in the 800 MHz and 3.45 GHz bands. 

Under the terms of the proposed T-Mobile/UScellular transaction, UScellular subscribers would have the option of staying on their existing rate plans. T-Mobile estimates that at least some of UScellular's subscribers would experience a price decrease by changing to comparable plans offered by T-Mobile. If correct, and given existing competition in the market, the deal would not likely cause rates to increase for consumers. 

The transfer of spectrum licenses contemplated in the proposed T-Mobile/UScellular transaction triggers the FCC's review of the transaction under its public interest standard. The Commission's merger review process includes opportunity for public comments that could shed added light on the proposed deal. The agency will undertake its examination of the representations made in the public interest statement – including information redacted from public view – and it will more closely examine the potential effects in local markets. However, at this stage of the proceeding, the T-Mobile/UScellular transaction appears to be a strong candidate for approval. 

Importantly, the Commission should complete its transaction review within the agency's informal 180-day shot clock. Delays in completing reviews can accelerate subscriber losses in small providers and have other harmful impacts.

(*12/19/2024 - a correction has been made in this post to the percentage of CMAs in which the parties have an overlapping presence)

(*02/04/2025 - further edits have been made to more accurately refer to the transaction as an acquisition of assets and not a merger between the parties)

FWA and Cable MVNO Services Gains Continue in Mid-2024

Fixed wireless access (FWA) residential broadband services as well as cable wireless mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) services are the faces of cross-platform competition in today's communications marketplace. Second quarter results for 2024 show continued growth of these services.

On July 31, T-Mobile announced that it added 406,000 FWA subscribers during the second quarter of 2024, upping its overall FWA subscriber total to 5.6 million. On July 22, Verizon announced that it added 378,000 FWA subscribers for a total of 3.8 million. On July 24 AT&T announced that it added 139,000 subscribers to its AT&T Internet Air service, reportedly growing its total FWA subscriber count to about 350,000.

News articles – including this June 6 LightReading article, "FWA in the USA: Getting ready for Phase 2," which helpfully summarizes different analyst takes on the future of the service – indicate that FWA continues to pose a particularly strong competitive challenge to cable broadband services. 

However, cable broadband providers continue attracting new subscribers to their MVNO wireless service offerings. According to a July 26 announcement by Charter Communications, its Spectrum Mobile service added 557,000 subscribers during the second quarter of 2024. At the quarter's end, Spectrum Mobile had 8.8 million subscribers. Additionally, Comcast announced on July 23 that it had gained 322,000 subscribers to Xfinity Mobile during the second quarter, increasing its subscriber total to 7.2 million. 

 

As I wrote in a blog post on May 3 of this year, "[t]he proper response by the FCC to the growth of FWA and cable MVNO in the communications market should be to emphasize market competition as a safeguard to consumer welfare rather than stringent government regulation." At that time, I observed that the Commission chose the wrong response on April 25 by re-imposing Title II public utility regulation on wireline and wireless broadband Internet Access services. However, the Sixth Circuit issued an order imposing a stay on the FCC's Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet that keeps the regulation from going into effect while the legal challenge before the court proceeds to the merits. Free State Foundation President Randolph May responded to the court's stay order in an August 2 press release titled "The FCC Should Turn to Productive Endeavors." 

 

One productive endeavor that the Commission should be pursuing is increased spectrum availability for commercial use. As FSF President May and I wrote in FSF’s July 2024 public comments to the FCC for its forthcoming Communications Marketplace Competition Report:

 

To further promote competition, innovation, and investment in the broadband marketplace, the Commission should work proactively to make more spectrum available for commercial use and by removing regulatory barriers to broadband deployment… There is particularly strong demand for additional mid-band spectrum. The Commission ought to prioritize the lower 3.1-3.45 GHz band for study and prompt repurposing… Although proposals for repurposing different bands are at different stages of development and each faces unique challenges, the Commission should advance every proposal for spectrum that may realistically be suitable for commercial uses – whether on a licensed or unlicensed basis. A larger spectrum supply will enable more competitors to serve more Americans with next-gen services. 

FWA and Cable MVNO Services Make More Gains in Early 2024

The reality of cross-platform competition in today's communications marketplace is evidenced by the continued growth of fixed wireless access (FWA) residential broadband services as well as cable wireless mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) services.

On April 25, T-Mobile announced that it added 405,000 FWA subscribers during the first quarter of 2024, bringing its overall FWA subscriber total to over 5 million. Verizon announced that it added 203,000 FWA subscribers during the first quarter, resulting in a total of 3.4 million. AT&T announced that it added 110,000 subscribers to its new FWA service during the first quarter, increasing its total FWA subscriber count to more than 200,000. 

It is reported that T-Mobile set an initial target of having 7-to-8 million FWA subscribers in 2025 and that Verizon has set a target of 4-to-5 million FWA subscribers for next year. Additionally, New Street Research reportedly has predicted that AT&T will be adding approximately 180,000 FWA subscribers per quarter during the remainder of 2024, with potential increases over the quarters that follow. It is reported that there is some difference in outlook among market analysts such as TD Cowen and Moffett Nathanson regarding how much competitive pressure FWA will put on cable broadband in the near term. 

 

Meanwhile, cable broadband providers continue attracting new subscribers to their MVNO offerings. According to an April 26 announcement by Charter Communications, its Spectrum Mobile service added 486,000 subscribers during the first quarter of 2024. At quarter's end, Spectrum Mobile had 8.3 million subscribers. Additionally, Comcast announced that it had gained 289,000 subscribers to Xfinity Mobile, increasing its subscriber total to 6.9 million. 

 

The proper response by the FCC to the growth of FWA and cable MVNO in the communications market should be to emphasize market competition as a safeguard to consumer welfare rather than stringent government regulation. Unfortunately, the Commission took the latter approach on April 25 when it voted 3-2 to subject broadband Internet access services to public utility regulation. The Free State Foundation filed comments and reply comments in the FCC’s Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet proceeding that opposed public utility regulation. 

Fixed Wireless Services Made Big Strides in 2023

On January 25, it was reported that T-Mobile added 541,000 fixed wireless access (FWA) subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2023. T-Mobile reportedly gained about 2.1 million subscribers to its 5G-enabled FWA residential broadband Internet services in 2023. Also, it was reported that Verizon gained 375,000 FWA subscribers in the fourth quarter of last year. According to reports, upwards of 80% of Verizon’s FWA subscriber additions are served in markets where Verizon obtained mid-band spectrum through the Commission's C-Band spectrum license auction. All told, T-Mobile and Verizon have a combined total of nearly 8 million FWA subs, with T-Mobile having about 4.78 million.

Importantly, AT&T launched its FWA services mid-way through 2023. AT&T is just getting started and it reportedly gained 67,000 FWA subscribers in the fourth quarter, bringing AT&T's total up to about 93,000. 

FWA has perhaps been the biggest breakthrough in the broadband internet services market to take place since the FCC released its Restoring Internet Freedom Order in 2018. Market entry by three nationwide FWA providers provides an ideal platform for accessing broadband in many rural areas. And in many cases, FWA entry boosts the number of fixed broadband access competitors for Americans in local markets already served by cable, fiber, and satellite broadband services. 

 

In the RIF Order, the Commission "conclude[d] that reclassification of broadband Internet access service from Title II to Title I is likely to increase ISP investment and output." The launch and rapid rollout of FWA is a critical output and it has been enabled by heavy capital investment, including investment in spectrum licenses won at competitive bidding auctions. 

 

On January 17, Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I filed reply comments in the FCC's Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet proceeding. In those reply comments, we recommended that the Commission keep the free market-oriented, light-touch regulatory framework for broadband Internet services established under the RIF Order. In FSF's reply comments, we quoted many of the doomsday predictions made by pro-public utility regulation supporters about how the Internet would grind to a slow halt or stop and everyday users would be shuffled off into Internet slow lanes while fat cats would ride high on Internet fast lanes. None of that ever happened. In fact, the opposite happened, as speeds have continued to increase since early 2018 and next-generation broadband services like FWA deployed nationwide to boost access and competition. 

AT&T Launches 5G Fixed Wireless Access Service

On Tuesday, AT&T announced the introduction of AT&T Internet Air, its 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) home Internet service, in 16 markets including Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Detroit. Previously offered only to existing digital subscriber line (DSL) customers in certain areas, the expanded offering of AT&T Internet Air represents yet another milestone in the rapid rise of FWA as a viable competitive alternative to traditional wireline high-speed home Internet access.

In "Fixed Wireless Access Is Boosting Rural Broadband and Consumer Choice," an April 2022 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, FSF Director of Policy Studies and Senior Fellow Seth L. Cooper touted not only FWA's ability "to connect several million Americans in rural and small markets," but also to compete with wireline providers for home Internet customers in more populated markets. This announcement that AT&T is targeting major cities with its FWA service, along with the rapid FWA subscriber gains of T-Mobile, Verizon, and U.S. Cellular, confirm both of those predictions.

Source: AT&T Blog

In a blog post earlier this month, Mr. Cooper highlighted second-quarter FWA subscriber numbers from T-Mobile (509,000 net additions, for a total of 3.7 million), Verizon (384,000 net additions, for a total of 2.3 million, and U.S. Cellular (over 100,000 total subscribers). Notably, these services did not exist prior to 2021.

According to the Leichtman Research Group, T-Mobile and Verizon combined have added over 800,000 FWA subscribers for 5 quarters in a row. In the second quarter of 2023 alone, they added almost 900,000 subscribers – compared to less than 10,000 new cable broadband subscribers and a loss of nearly 62,000 by the top wireline phone companies.

In Comments filed in the FCC's 2022 Communications Marketplace Report proceeding, Free State Foundation scholars argued that the Commission should:

[C]ease its exclusively piecemeal evaluation of broadband marketplace competition that continues to rely on "siloed" service definitions. Instead, it should evaluate competition with a broader "broadband market" definition that takes into account fiber, cable, mobile, FWA, and satellite platforms. This broader outlook would more accurately reflect market realities and be a better guide to formulating Commission policy.

Early Activation of Extra Licensed C-band Spectrum Will Enhance 5G Services and Competition

On August 14, Verizon announced that it has gained access to all of the C-band spectrum that it acquired through the FCC's spectrum license auction in March 2021. And today, August 16, it is reported that AT&T has doubled its available licensed C-band spectrum for 5G deployment. Apparently, the C-band spectrum for both providers was cleared ahead of schedule. Consumers will benefit from the network coverage and performance improvements enabled by the activation of valuable C-band (3.7 GHz) spectrum. And this development should enhance the overall competitiveness of the wireless market.

In an October 2022 blog post, I noted findings by OpenSignal that activation of C-band spectrum was leading to improved speeds for Verizon's and AT&T's respective 5G network services. And now with additional C-band spectrum available for use, Verizon and AT&T will significantly boost the speeds and capacity of their 5G service offerings. According to a Verizon press release:

Verizon won C-Band licenses for between 140-200 MHz in all available markets, and began deploying 60 MHz in the first 46 areas in 2022. As the additional spectrum has been cleared by satellite companies outside of the first 46 areas, Verizon has been able to deploy 5G Ultra Wideband using a portion of its licensed bandwidth in many more markets coast to coast. Now, with final clearance from the satellite incumbents, Verizon will be able to use the entirety of its licensed C-band spectrum, an average of 161 MHz coast to coast with some markets accessing a full 200 MHz. Verizon has been deploying equipment that is capable of the full 200MHz of bandwidth, so with a mere software update, customers will start to see the effects of this dramatic increase in bandwidth in the immediate next few days and weeks.

And as observed a news article in FierceWireless, AT&T combines C-band spectrum with 3.45 GHz spectrum nationwide, and its 5G mid-band network now covers over 175 million people, and its nationwide 5G network, including low-band spectrum, covers approximately 290 million people. 

Verizon's press release states its 5G services currently are available to over 222 million people in 359 markets. It also is reported in FierceWireless that Verizon will be operating its 5G network using C-band spectrum at full power in the vicinity of airports. Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I wrote about the FAA's questionable late-in-the-game attempt to halt full use of licensed C-band spectrum by Verizon and AT&T in a November 2021 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "The FAA Should Stop Interfering With 5G in the C-Band." The FCC has "unified jurisdiction and regulatory power" over commercial spectrum, not the FAA. And that midnight hour dispute regarding C-band spectrum near airports almost certainly would have been avoided had the FAA been more engaged earlier in the Commission's C-band proceeding, when it had ample opportunity to do so. Interagency disputes over spectrum have been too numerous in recent years, and the effect of those disputes is detrimental to the full use of valuable spectrum and timely deployment of next-generation wireless services. As President May and I also wrote a February 2022 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "Congress Should Require Better Agency Coordination of Spectrum Policy."

Cable MVNOs and FWA Continue to Gain Subscribers in 2023

One of the most intriguing facets of today's communications marketplace is the intermodal competition enabled by cable wireless mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) and fixed wireless access (FWA) residential broadband services offered by mobile wireless providers. In late July, both cable MVNOs and FWA providers released positive quarterly reports for the second quarter of 2023, providing an updated picture of these increasingly popular services.

During the second quarter of this year, the gains continued for cable MVNO Charter's Spectrum Mobile. According to its quarterly report that was released on July 31, Spectrum Mobile added 648,000 lines during the end of the quarter. That brought Spectrum Mobile's total to more than 6.6 million mobile lines. And Comcast's Xfinity, which released its quarterly report on July 27, had 316,000 net wireless line additions during the quarter. Xfinity now has just under 6 million wireless lines. 

 

Meanwhile, T-Mobile released its quarterly report on July 27. T-Mobile had 509,000 net subscriber additions for FWA high-speed Internet service, and it ended the quarter with 3.7 million FWA subscribers. Also, Verizon released its quarterly report on July 25. Verizon had 384,000 net additions for its FWA service, bringing its FWA subscriber total up to almost 2.3 million. Notably, U.S. Cellular reported on August 1 that it has surpassed 100,000 subscribers to its FWA service. 

 

Both cable wireless MVNO and FWA services depend on spectrum – both unlicensed and licensed. Right now, the most pressing need is more licensed spectrum to support 5G wireless services, including FWA. The best thing that Congress can do to fill this need is to pass H.R. 3565, the Spectrum Reauthorization Act of 2023. For more on this legislation, see FSF Senior Fellow Andrew Long's July 21 blog post, "Congress Should Reinstate the FCC's Spectrum Auction Authority."

Survey Shows Big-Time Growth in 2022 for 5G Devices and Home Broadband

On July 25, CTIA released its 2023 Annual Survey. Survey highlights are posted on CTIA's website. It shows the remarkable growth in wireless services that took place in the U.S. during 2022.  

The survey highlights show that 2022 was a record-breaking year for wireless data traffic growth, as U.S. wireless networks supported 73.7 billion MB of traffic last year. That total was 20 trillion MB – or 38% more – than in 2021. Total wireless traffic for 2017 was 15.7 trillion MB. Additionally, annual wireless investment climbed to an industry record $39 billion in 2022, up from $35 billion in 2021. This marks the continuation of a series of annual increases in capital investment, going back to 2017, when annual investment totaled $26 billion. According to CTIA, over its history (presumably dating back to the early 1990s), the wireless industry has invested over $675 billion.

CTIA's 2023 Survey Highlights also revealed stunning growth in wireless connectivity, especially for 5G devices. At year's-end 2022, there were about 523 million connected wireless devices and 162 million active 5G devices. Those numbers are up significantly from 2021, when connected wireless devices totaled 499 million and active 5G devices totaled 86 million. Between the end of 2021 and 2022, here was a near doubling of 5G connected devices. 

The survey also shows that 2022 was a huge year for 5G home broadband. According to the survey highlights, 5G home broadband now covers more than 94 million U.S. households, and that 5G home broadband accounted for 90% of net broadband additions last year. The survey also contains 2022 figures regarding small cells, price per MB, and text. 

The continuing success of wireless services in the U.S. owes, in significant part, to a pro-investment, pro-competition, light-touch regulatory policy that dates back to the early 1990s.  Thirty years ago, Congress authorized competitive bidding spectrum license auctions and preempted state regulation of rates and entry as well as state and local government permit and zoning decisions on infrastructure citing that have the "effect of prohibiting" wireless services. To ensure the continued success of 5G services in the U.S. Congress should take action in 2023 to advance legislation such as H.R. 3557, the American Broadband Deployment Act of 2023, to clear away obstacles to timely infrastructure. Also helpful to promoting broadband deployment, including wireless broadband, are a slate of bipartisan bills for streamlining infrastructure deployment that were passed by the House Energy and Commerce Committee in May of this year and highlighted in a May 24 blog post. And as FSF Senior Fellow Andrew Long explained in a July 21 blog post, "Congress Should Reinstate the FCC's Spectrum Auction Authority" by passing H.R. 3565, the Spectrum Reauthorization Act of 2023. 

A Strong Future for 5G Requires More Mid-Band Spectrum

On July 13, CTIA released a report titled, "The State of 5G: Evaluating Progress and Charting the Path Forward." The State of 5G Report highlights the rapid speed of 5G network deployment – outpacing deployment of 4G LTE networks – strong consumer adoption of 5G by U.S. consumers, the benefits of fixed wireless access (FWA) in providing residential broadband and closing the digital divide, innovative uses cases for 5G for medical, agricultural and other industries, 5G network reliability and security, and job creation enabled by 5G networks.

Additionally, the State of 5G Report states that "5G is at an inflection point: While initial deployments have achieved a solid footing, attention now turns to the scaling-up of applications and ensuring capacity is available to meet growing demand." Moreover, 5G home broadband service "requires more spectrum to scale up to its potential as a nationwide home broadband competitor. Today operators only offer this service in areas with sufficient capacity to provide reliable quality of service. Without more spectrum, the opportunity for FWA to scale and meet demand for a home broadband alternative to cable will likely be foregone."

 

The report cites estimates that the U.S. will need at least 400 MHz of additional mid-band spectrum to supply projected demand in 5 years, and also need nearly 1,500 MHz in 10 years. Yet the report also observes, correctly, that there are no planned spectrum auctions in the works. The FCC already has allocated significant amounts of spectrum for unlicensed uses, including Wi-Fi. But significant amounts of spectrum remain under federal agency control, and action is needed to put more spectrum into commercial use on an exclusive licensed basis. As Free State Foundation President Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long have written about on several occasions, the Commission's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions has lapsed and it needs to be restored. To date, Congress has not succeeded in passing legislation to restore the FCC's spectrum license auction authority.  

 

The report identifies things that must be done in order to ensure that the U.S. maintains its economic competitiveness and national security when it comes to 5G services. It cites estimates that the U.S. will need at least 400 MHz of additional mid-band spectrum to supply projected demand in 5 years, and also need nearly 1,500 MHz in 10 years. But as the report observes, today there are no planned spectrum auctions for spectrum licenses. 

 

The report also states that U.S. support for proposals to new mobile allocations for 1,490 MHz of spectrum located between 4.8 GHz and 10.5 GHz, both at the November 2023 World Radio Conference and domestically, would put the U.S. in prime position for the 5G future. 

As I have written in prior blog posts, Congress can do its part in securing a strong 5G future for the U.S. by taking up and passing the Spectrum Auction Reauthorization Act of 2023 – H.R. 3565. The Act, if passed into law, would restore the FCC's statutory authority to hold spectrum license auctions. Additionally, the Act would authorize the NTIA to study the feasibility of making 4 GHz band and 7/8 GHz band available for commercial use on an exclusive or shared basis. 

Ericsson Reports on Present and Future Growth of Mobile Services

The June 2023 edition of the "Ericsson Mobility Report" was released on June 23. The updated report features high-level view of global and regional developments and trends in mobile data services as well as projected growth forecasts. Although the June 2023 report does not include any figures specific to the United States, it does contain many useful insights regarding mobile data traffic increases, progress in 5G deployment, and potential growth in fixed wireless access (FWA) for the globe and for North America.

Among the report's findings, "[t]he uptake of 5G subscriptions in North America has been stronger than expected," and year's-end 2022 it had the highest 5G subscription penetration at 41%. Included in the report is a chart showing the disappearance of legacy 3G services in North America and strong growth in 4G LTE as well as 5G. Yet although 4G subscriptions increased in 2022, the report expects those numbers to decline starting this year. According to the report's projection, in 2028, North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 91%.

The report credits the use of mid-band spectrum in North American for strong 5G services growth, and it expects there to be over 250 million subscriptions by the end of this year. And the report projects there to be about 410 million 5G subscriptions by 2028. Important to this 5G growth is FWA services. The report observes that "FWA, providing high-speed internet to homes and small businesses, has become the primary technology fueling fixed broadband growth in North America." 

 

Moreover, the report projects that average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone in North American will rise to 58 GB in 2029, and it credits this to unlimited data plans and improved 5G network capacity supporting new mobile and FWA 5G subscribers. 

 

Notably, the report also found that monthly global mobile data traffic reached 126 exabytes (EB) by the first quarter of this year – nearly double what it was just two years prior.  

 

But in order to fully support projected future increases in mobile data traffic in the U.S. – as well as support potential stronger-than-expected growth in 5G services – more spectrum will need to be made available for private commercial use. Now that the U.S. spectrum pipeline for commercial wireless services has run empty and the FCC's authority for conducting competitive bidding spectrum license auctions has lapsed, the clear policy priority should be to replenish the pipeline with more mid-band spectrum from commercial licensing and to renew the Commission's authority conduct auctions and license spectrum use on an exclusive basis. 

Report on Fixed Wireless Access Competition Shows Need for More Mid-Band Spectrum

Today, Econ One released a report titled "Competitive Effects of Fixed Wireless Access on Wireline Broadband Technologies." There is an ongoing debate over the potential impact of fixed wireless access (services) on broadband competition. This interesting report, authored by Hal Singer and Augustus Urschel, provides a significant contribution to the debate.

The Econ One report estimates the competitive effects of FWA entry into broadband markets. The estimates are based on surveys of consumer responses to hypothetical scenarios in which FWA services are made available at different price levels and in local markets with differing choices among incumbent providers of cable modem and/or fiber broadband services. 

 

According to Econ One's report: "In all scenarios—including at current prices or alternative discounted prices, and in markets with only cable or those with a mix of cable and fiber offerings—the introduction of FWA packages yields price reductions and significant consumer welfare gains." That is, the report found that FWA market entry would prompt many subscribers to switch from incumbent services to competitively priced FWA services and also lead to price reductions for subscribers to cable broadband services. For the details, check out Econ One's report.

Notably, Econ One's report "assumes sufficient capacity to support all potential subscribers with high-speed FWA service." That assumption is key because mid-band spectrum is a necessary input for supporting FWA services for large numbers of subscribers. But as Free State Foundation scholars have pointed out in April 2023 public comments to the NTIA for its National Spectrum Strategy proceeding, in Perspectives from FSF Scholars papers, and in blog posts, there is a shortfall of mid-band spectrum available for commercial licensing on an exclusive basis. The Econ One report is on solid ground in concluding that "[t]he best and fastest way to increase home broadband competition, which will bring significant consumer savings, is getting more full-power, licensed, mid-band spectrum into the hands of FWA providers."

FSF scholars have supported prior FCC allocations of spectrum for use on an unlicensed basis, including the Commission's 5.9 GHz Order. Congress and federal agencies also ought to be open to pursuing new opportunities to dedicated other spectrum resources to unlicensed uses. But it is now imperative that Congress and federal agencies prioritize the repurposing of mid-band spectrum for exclusive licensed use. Congress needs to renew the FCC's authority to conduct competitive bidding auctions for spectrum licenses and get additional mid-band spectrum into use to support FWA.  

In Early 2023, Fixed Wireless Access Services Are Still Going Strong

On April 24 and 25, T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless released their respective first quarter results for 2023. Once again, both nationwide mobile providers reportedly had strong net subscriber additions to their fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband services.  

T-Mobile reportedly added 523,000 net subscribers to its FWA services. According to a May 17 article in FierceWireless,T-Mobile "has a goal to grow its existing 3.2 million FWA customers to around 7 million to 8 million FWA customers by the end of 2025" and that "it is looking at various options that may allow it to grow beyond that 7 million or 8 million figure."

 

An April 25 article in FierceWireless by Sue Marek states that Verizon "reported 393,000 FWA net adds in the quarter, bringing its total FWA subscriber base to 1.9 million. Of those 393,000 FWA net adds, 137,000 came from the company's Business group." Additionally, an April 25 article in FierceWireless by Diana Goovaerts notes that Verizon "stands to gain 100MHz of additional C-Band spectrum later this year which it plans to deploy in urban areas to benefit FWA and wireless customers who are currently being served with 60MHz of C-Band."

 

With increased access to C-band spectrum, continued expansion of 5G network coverage, and growth of fiber for backhaul support, FWA is likely to be an attractive option for more Americans by the end of the year. And, as observed in a November 1, 2022 blog post, FWA is a particularly attractive option for those residing in areas with geographical terrain that are difficult-to-reach as well as in areas with lower population densities. These benefits of FWA are the subject of my April 2022 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "Fixed Wireless Access is Boosting Rural Broadband and Consumer Choice." 

 

However, a replenished spectrum pipeline is a necessary condition for realizing the full potential of FWA and for maximizing the competitiveness of the broadband services marketplace. My blog post from March 9 of this year called attention to the lapsing of the FCC's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions. And the Free State Foundation's April 17 public comments to the NTIA urged the timely adoption and implementation of a National Spectrum Strategy that will boost the supply of spectrum for commercial and other private uses, particularly for licensed commercial use. Congress should promptly act to restore the FCC's spectrum auction authority, and the NTIA should act timely in adopting the implementation plan for the long-awaited National Spectrum Strategy.  

Ericsson Report Spotlights 5G's Second Wave

The latest "Ericsson Mobility Report" was released on November 30. The report summarizes the progress of wireless services on a global as well as regional bases, along with future growth forecasts. The report summarizes the progress of the U.S. in repurposing spectrum for wireless services, particular in the mid-band:

The US is one of a few countries that has significant 5G deployments across low-, mid- and high-band frequencies. Launched in April 2019, 5G services were first available in high- and low-bands. Ten service providers have deployed 5G on low-band, covering over 95 percent of the US population. High-band 5G services are available in 90 cities. The Federal Communication Commission subsequently allocated mid-bands over the course of several auctions during 2020–2022. Currently the three national service providers are rapidly deploying 5G mid-band networks nationwide. Around 80 percent mid-band population coverage is projected by the end of 2022. 

Most of the report's information pertaining to the U.S. is encapsulated in its data for North America:

5G is in the second wave of build-outs and user adoption. The addition of mid-band spectrums now enables superior multi-band 5G experiences for many users. In 2022, 5G adoption continued to grow strongly, with more than 140 million subscriptions expected by the year-end. High-speed internet access to homes and small businesses with Fixed Wireless Access has become the primary technology fueling fixed broadband growth in North America. 5G is also growing in the enterprise segment with wireless WAN to branch office locations and to serve ultra-mobile professions. By 2028, around 420 million 5G subscriptions are expected, accounting for over 90 percent of mobile subscriptions. 

Among the report's forecasts, 5G subscription penetration is expected to reach 35% in North America by the end of this year. And average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone is expected to reach 55 GB in 2028. 

For more statistics and projections regarding wireless services, see the November 2022 edition of the "Ericsson Mobility Report." 

Carriers Set Record With New Fixed Wireless Subscribers

On October 21 and 27, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile each released their third quarter results for 2022. Both nationwide carries posted record numbers of net subscriber additions to their fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband services. Verizon Wireless reported an impressive 342,000 fixed wireless net additions – a quarterly record for Verizon Wireless. And T-Mobile reported that it added a record high 578,000 high speed Internet customers. Although T-Mobile did not provide a specific service breakdown for that category, its record-breaking figure apparently consists primarily of net additions to its FWA services.

FWA services, which are increasingly offered using 5G networks, are particularly important for their ability to connect costly and difficult-to-reach geographic areas of the country. For more on that point, see my April 2022 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "Fixed Wireless Access is Boosting Rural Broadband and Consumer Choice." And along with cable mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) wireless services, FWA services are a vibrant form of intermodal competition in today's communications market.