Report Forecasts Impending Spectrum Crisis, Calls for More Licensed Mid-Band Capacity

On March 27, CTIA released a report by Accenture titled "Securing the Future of U.S. Wireless Networks: The Looming Spectrum Crisis." It predicts a near-term shortfall in available spectrum to meet growing demand, which could adversely impact wireless users during peak times as soon as next year. To avert that crisis, the report calls on Congress, the NTIA, and the FCC to make more mid-band spectrum between 3.3-8.5 GHz available for full-power licensed commercial use.  

The Accenture report estimates that U.S. consumers' mobile wireless data of over 100 Gigabits in 2023 was almost double data traffic volumes for 2021, and it cites a wireless industry estimate data traffic per smartphone will increase more than 250% by 2029. The FCC has not auctioned new commercial spectrum licenses since 2022. Without new spectrum inputs to support 5G services, including fixed wireless access (FWA) and emerging artificial intelligence (AI) applications, the report concludes that "[t]he U.S. will reach an available spectrum deficit of 401 MHz by 2027 and 1423 MHz by 2032." 

 

According to the Accenture report, the looming spectrum deficit means that "network capacity will meet only 77% of data demand during peak hours by 2027, and this will worsen to networks meeting only 27% of peak demand by 2035." The report finds a future deficit will cause as much as $1.4 trillion in lost U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035 – unless more spectrum is put into full-power licensed commercial use for 5G. 

 

There is a widely-recognized need that more spectrum needs to be repurposed from government use or occupancy to commercial use. However, intense disagreements exist over how much spectrum should be reallocated on a licensed basis versus an unlicensed basis. There are also diverging views over whether particular bands should be licensed on an exclusive basis to commercial licensees or on a shared basis with government users. Accenture's report provides an important contribution to the ongoing spectrum policy debate. The report's analysis and conclusions deserve thoughtful consideration.

 

Spectrum policy was also a topic of discussion and debate at the Free State Foundation's Seventeenth Annual Policy Conference – #FSFConf17 – held on March 25, in Washington DC. Be sure to check out videos featuring Senator Ted Cruz's keynote address, touching on his proposed legislation to replenish the spectrum pipeline, as well as the panel on "New Directions in Communications Policy." 

Report: Putting Mid-Band Spectrum into Licensed Use Adds Billions to Economy

On January 23, CTIA published a report, "The Economic Impact of Each Additional 100 MHz of Mid-band Spectrum for Mobile." 

The report, prepared by NERA, identifies the serious looming shortfall of mid-band range (1 GHz to 7 GHz bands) spectrum for licensed use in the face of sharply rising demand – and it goes on to estimate the tremendous economic benefits that result from putting more spectrum into licensed use:

[T]he wireless industry is rapidly approaching a spectrum deficit that will result in network congestion, thereby hindering the continued growth fueled by the wireless industry. Projections indicate that wireless operators will need at least 400 MHz of additional spectrum by 2027 to meet the needs of the U.S. economy, a deficit that will continue to grow to over 1400 MHz by 2032.

…

We estimate that each additional 100 MHz of mid-band spectrum to mobile will generate $264 billion of GDP, about 1.5 million new jobs, and about $388 billion in consumer surplus. The impact of 400 MHz of mid-band spectrum would be $1.1 trillion of GDP, 6.18 million new jobs, and about $1.5 trillion in consumer surplus. Beneficial effects would continue to accumulate beyond 400 MHz, and we estimate that by 2028 even 400 MHz of new 5G spectrum will not be enough to keep up with consumer demand.

The report traces the economic benefits of allocating mid-band spectrum for wireless use, including better mobile and fixed wireless access (FWA) for consumers and business employers, as well as support for industries that rely on mobile connectivity or serve the wireless industry.  

 

Reallocating spectrum occupied by federal agencies for licensed commercial use will require Congress to reauthorize the FCC's authority to conduct spectrum auctions and issue licenses to bid winners. Restoring that authority should be a top priority of the 119th Congress. Achieving this result and maximizing the economic benefits of licensed spectrum use also likely will depend on Congress and the Trump Administration finding ways to accelerate or revamp the existing National Spectrum Strategy to get lower 3 GHz and other spectrum ready on a much faster timetable.  

House Hearing Should Prompt Action on Wireless Spectrum, FCC Auctions

On January 23, the House Subcommittee on Communications & Technology will hold a hearing titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Wireless Technology." The hearing will feature witness testimony addressing spectrum management, licensed versus unlicensed spectrum, spectrum auction authority, international harmonization, and radio access networks (RANs).

The hearing is important because next-generation wireless networks are vital to our nation's economic vitality and competitive. Also, the hearing is timely because there is an urgent need for more spectrum dedicated to commercial wireless use, particularly licensed spectrum and especially spectrum in the mid-band range (1 GHz to 7 GHz).

 

Wireless device connections and mobile data usage are rising sharply each year, with demand rising ever-higher in the years to come. Unfortunately, the U.S. supply of licensed spectrum is likely to fall short absent the reallocation of additional spectrum from government occupancy to private commercial use. At this moment, there is no spectrum waiting in the wings to be repurposed for commercial use, despite federal agencies using or at least occupying significant amounts of spectrum resources. To make matters more difficult, the FCC's general authority to conduct spectrum license auctions and issues licenses to auction bid winners lapsed in 2023. 

 

The 119th Congress and the Trump Administration should take decisive action to replenish the stock of mid-band spectrum and revive the Commission's auction authority. The first Trump Administration's National Spectrum Strategy stalled out, and the Biden Administration's National Spectrum has been criticized for its painful slowness and overstudying instead of producing results. Whatever has come before now, every available good option for fast-tracking and getting more spectrum into private use should be pursued and a re-stocked spectrum pipeline made into reality. 

 

The House Subcommittee's January 23 spectrum hearing memo is available here. Hopefully, the hearing will lead to prompt concrete action in the 119th Congress on spectrum and other important wireless policy issues. 

FWA Make Further Strides, More Spectrum and Cell Sites Needed

In today's communications market, cross-platform competition is exemplified by fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband services. In the third quarter of 2024, consumer adoption of both FWA continued strong. 

According to a report in Light Reading, in the third quarter of 2024, Verizon had 2.67 million FWA subscribers – 1.64 million residences and 1.03 million for businesses. And a report at SDxCentral indicates that AT&T Air gained about 135,000 subscribers to its Internet Air FWA service, for a total of about 500,000. T-Mobile reported gaining 541,000 subscribers to its Home 5G FWA service during the quarter, bringing its reported total to over 6 million.  

 

Further growth is expected. It is reported in Fierce Network that Verizon plans to expand its C-band spectrum to 70% of its planned footprint by the end of this year and to double its FWA footprint to 90 million homes and businesses by 2028. Also, it's reported in Light Reading that New Street Research has predicted T-Mobile will add 1.45 million FWA subscribers next year, Verizon will add 1.3 million, and AT&T will add about 550,000. SDxCentral reported that T-Mobile has a goal of serving 12 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2028, and Verizon has a goal of serving 9 million by 2028. 

 

For the FCC, particularly under its prospective new membership in the second Trump Administration, increasing access to spectrum and ensuring streamlined permitting processes for constructing wireless infrastructure will be keys to realizing the future potential of FWA as a high-quality service and competitive choice for residential broadband subscribers in America. 

 

In July 2024 public comments to the FCC for its forthcoming Communications Marketplace Competition Report, Free State Foundation President May and I wrote:

To further promote competition, innovation, and investment in the broadband marketplace, the Commission should work proactively to make more spectrum available for commercial use and by removing regulatory barriers to broadband deployment… There is particularly strong demand for additional mid-band spectrum. The Commission ought to prioritize the lower 3.1-3.45 GHz band for study and prompt repurposing… Although proposals for repurposing different bands are at different stages of development and each faces unique challenges, the Commission should advance every proposal for spectrum that may realistically be suitable for commercial uses – whether on a licensed or unlicensed basis. A larger spectrum supply will enable more competitors to serve more Americans with next-gen services. 

For now, there is no spectrum in the pipeline for commercial services. A priority for the incoming Trump Administration will be to replenish that authority and restore the FCC's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions. Meanwhile, as indicated by an article in Fierce Networks, network densification – including constructing additional cell towers and other infrastructure – may be one way to expand network capacity while mid-band spectrum remains scarce. 

CSIS Reiterates Importance of Spectrum to National Security

Recently published commentary from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) makes familiar points regarding America's pressing need for additional, globally harmonized commercial spectrum – but also places the continuing spectrum-allocation impasse in a broader, geopolitical context characterized by serious national security and intelligence implications.

"Spectrum Allocations and Twenty-First-Century National Security," by James Andrew Lewis, echoes arguments raised by another CSIS scholar, Clete Johnson, that I summarized in an October 2024 post to the FSF Blog. Namely, that Congress must act quickly to renew the FCC's spectrum auction authority and work with the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to ensure that the same bands used in other parts of the world are made available for commercial use in the U.S.

The concern, according to Mr. Lewis, is China:

The United States is in a global competition with China over markets, rule setting, and technological leadership…. To remain competitive, the United States will need to adjust how it has allocated radio spectrum to emphasize commercial innovation. The government-centric spectrum allocations of the last century will need to change if we are not to fall behind. 

Specifically, U.S. policymakers must appreciate that, going forward, technological innovation by the commercial, rather than the government, sector is the key to national security in the twenty-first century: "[c]ommercial technologies underpin modern military strength." And that to facilitate that technological innovation, domestic commercial interests must have access to the same spectrum bands used in the rest of the world:

If the United States does not use a harmonized spectrum, it shrinks the economies of scale that trusted vendors need to compete with Huawei…. In simple terms, people will build devices to use specific spectrum bands for commercial purposes designated by the WRC. Essentially, if the United States does not use spectrum allocated everywhere else for commercial purposes, it will be handicapped in any competition.

In other words, U.S. policymakers must move beyond the antiquated notion that government control of certain bands, in and of itself, enhances our national security – and instead recognize that military might today hinges in large part upon America's ability to dictate the technological standards for mobile networks used worldwide. Commercial access to globally harmonized spectrum bands is critical to achieving that objective.

Mr. Lewis concludes with a warning: "[t]he timing for action is short, perhaps a year or two since a failure to act puts the United States at the cusp of a great strategic blunder that will let an ambitious China build the network that forms the backbone of the global economy."

Report Highlights Link Between Spectrum Policy and National Security

A new report published by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) warns that absent a heightened focus on our national spectrum policy, "[t]he security of the United States as a market democracy is at stake." In the simplest of terms, online activity is only as secure as the underlying apps and network infrastructure over which it occurs. If that software and hardware is to come from trusted sources, policymakers must foster an environment in which America's mobile marketplace maintains a powerful say in global technology development, "especially as autocratic nations seek to dominate."

In Part 1 of "Concrete National Security Benefits of Spectrum Allocation for Commercial 5G," CSIS Strategic Technologies Program Senior Fellow Clete Johnson identifies two "difficult technical feats" that the U.S. must and can accomplish if it is to achieve the scale necessary to drive technology development down a secure and trusted path. The first is to better harmonize frequency use, as "[t]he more that U.S. spectrum use is harmonized with that of allies and global markets, the more scale trusted suppliers have for secure technology development." The second is to allocate sufficient spectrum so that capacity does not constrain the economic might of American consumers.

Harmonizing the frequencies allocated to 5G (and successor standards) is essential to achieving economies of scale because technology development is frequency specific: equipment developed for one band typically cannot be used in other bands. As the report points out, however, "the United States is becoming a mid-band spectrum 'island,' operating largely outside the core globally harmonized spectrum bands. If this trajectory continues, the U.S. technology ecosystem will be confined to a U.S.-only spectrum 'dialect' that lacks global influence and scale."

Allocating sufficient spectrum to satisfy growing mobile broadband demand, meanwhile, maximizes the economic ability of 350 million American consumers to shape global technology decisions. As the report explains:

U.S. wireless companies need sufficient spectrum resources to collaborate with like-minded nations in innovating and manufacturing advanced wireless technologies and components – including chipsets, software, radios, and more – for use in both the commercial and federal sectors…. The existing disparity between U.S. licensed mid-band spectrum allocations as compared to the rest of the world has become a major national security challenge, as it has created a platform for China to shape the near-term and future technology environment to its strategic advantage.

The report proposes several ways to address this situation. They include:

• Reframing the spectrum deficit as "an optimization challenge, not a scarcity problem."
• Moving from a "zero-sum" mindset that pits government and commercial uses against each other to a collaborative environment that promotes "static" and, in the longer term, "dynamic" spectrum sharing solutions.
• Restoring the FCC's spectrum auction authority.
• Aggressively pursuing harmonization opportunities, which may include the 7/8 GHz band, so that America speaks the same "frequency 'language'" as its allies.

The report's forthcoming Part 2 primarily will focus "on the importance of agile spectrum management capabilities in the context of electronic warfare."

Future U.S. Competitiveness Requires More Licensed Spectrum

On May 6, CTIA published a report, "How Licensed Spectrum Fuels U.S. Competitiveness." CTIA's report makes a case for why more full-power licensed commercial spectrum – especially in the mid-band – is needed to ensure that the U.S. remains a competitive leader and realizes its full economic potential in the years ahead.

CTIA's report emphasizes wireless-enabled U.S. economic gains in international export-focused sectors, including agriculture, transportation, as well as pharmaceuticals, health care, and life sciences. Its overview of the economic benefits of wireless to manufacturing, machinery, and equipment is particularly insightful:

• "Wireless connectivity is a critical innovation-enhancing input that boosts productivity across several key traded sectors, while constitutive parts of the wireless industry, like equipment, components, chips, devices, and software, are also themselves exported around the world."

•  "A healthy U.S. 5G ecosystem makes for a stronger U.S. semiconductor industry" to fabricate chips used to power smartphones and other wireless devices.

• "U.S. firms enjoy over 25 percent of global handset market share and dominate smartphone operating systems worldwide" due partly to early US leadership in 4G LTE networks. 

• The U.S. is "a significant player in development of the intellectual property underlying wireless communications. With this IP, U.S. firms are major contributors to wireless communications standards, which are then used around the world."

• "Researchers estimate the global 5G value chain, including network operators, providers of underlying technology and components, device and equipment manufacturers, and 5G application developers, will contribute $3.6 trillion in economic output by 2035."

• "A significant component of this economic potential comes from efficiency-driving insights from Internet of Things (IoT) deployments… More spectrum will ensure 5G networks have the capacity to support a deeper integration of IoT sensors and devices to further enhance use cases across industries."

• "Increasing U.S. manufacturing productivity—squeezing more from each dollar invested—is essential to making American manufacturing more globally competitive, and how to do this is a key consideration for policymakers who are looking to encourage manufacturers to produce more goods in America."

• "The Manufacturing Institute surveyed manufacturing leaders on the impact of 5G on their business, finding manufacturers believe 5G can help lower costs by an estimated average of 38%, while increasing machine productivity by an estimated 42% and workforce productivity by 41%."

• "This productivity impact comes from many 5G applications, such as smart factory connectivity, real-time insights from digital twins, and enhanced training and maintenance capabilities."

However, the report cites other report findings that the U.S. faces a "spectrum crunch." According to the report: "Researchers estimate that by 2027, U.S. operators will need an additional 400 megahertz of full-powered mid-band license spectrum, even accounting for optimistic growth in infrastructure, spectral efficiency, and Wi-Fi offload." This projected deficit increases to almost 1,500 MHz by 2032. By contrast, "China has already allocated 1460 megahertz of mid-band spectrum for 5G." That amount is 3.2 times more than the U.S.  Also, "[r]esearchers estimate that China may dedicate up to a total of 1660 megahertz of mid-band spectrum for 5G in the coming years."

 

CTIA's report calls for more full-power, mid-band spectrum for wide-area commercial 5G networks to ensure strong U.S. competitiveness against leading foreign rival China. It makes a call to fast action to license suitable sections of the lower 3 GHz and 7/8 GHz bands for full-power networks. As the report states, "policymakers should rely on tried-and-true auctions to identify those entities best positioned to generate the greatest value out of the limited frequencies available."

 

Free State Foundation President Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long reiterated the need for a replenished spectrum pipeline in January 2024 public comments to the NTIA for its Implementation Plan for the National Spectrum Strategy. The importance of re-establishing the FCC's statutory authority to conduct competitive bidding spectrum license auctions as well as the importance of more spectrum availability – both licensed and unlicensed – were discussed during the "Hot Topics in Communications Law and Policy" panel at the Free State Foundation's Sixteenth Annual Policy Conference. The panel video is available online. 

NTIA Spectrum Strategy Implementation Plan Announced at FSF Policy Conference

At Free State Foundation's 16th Annual Policy Conference held on March 12, the NTIA's Senior Spectrum Advisor Scott Blake Harris announced the release of the its National Spectrum Strategy Implementation Plan.

The Plan and an accompanying press release briefly summarizing it are available at the NTIA's website. Video of Mr. Blake's keynote address is available online. If Mr. Blake's prepared remarks at FSF's Annual Policy Conference become available, we will post them. FSF appreciates Mr. Blake's appearance at the Conference.

 

On January 2 of this year, FSF President Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long filed comments with the NTIA on the implementation of the National Spectrum Strategy. In those comments, FSF President May and Mr. Long emphasized the crisis of the empty spectrum pipeline and the need to take action to repurpose mid-band spectrum for commercial use. Stay tuned for more from FSF Scholars on the NTIA's Implementation Plan, spectrum policy, and the 17th Annual Policy Conference.
 

(*This post was updated on 3/15/2024 with information and links to the video of Mr. Blake's address at #FSFConf16.)

FCC Issues 2.5 GHz Spectrum Licenses, But Agency Still Needs Auction Authority

On February 29, 27, and 1, the FCC granted long-form applications to wireless providers, including T-Mobile, for several thousand spectrum licenses in the 2.5 GHz band won in Auction 108.  

The results of Auction 108 were announced way back in September 2022. Yet the Commission's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions lapsed in March 2023, and Chairman Jessica Rosenworcel has determined that the lapse of that authority prevented the agency from issuing those licenses. At the end of last year, Congress passed the 5G Sale Act, conferring on the FCC a 90-day window to grant licenses won in Auction 108. The Commission's February orders granting the 2.5 GHz band licenses were based on the Act.

 

It is welcome news that parties who successfully bid on spectrum licenses at auction receive the licenses they won and paid for. Also welcome is the news that more mid-band licensed spectrum finally will be put into use for commercial wireless services as a result of Auction 108. However, the lapse in FCC spectrum license auction authority remains, and there also remains a shortage of licensed spectrum for supplying growing wireless data demands on 5G and future 6G networks. Spectrum allocation and harmonization by the NTIA, FCC, and other agencies is a priority. But it also is necessary that Congress spectrum license auction authority to the Commission. 

 

For more on what Congress needs to do, see Senior Fellow Andrew Long's July 2023 blog post, "Congress Should Reinstate the FCC's Spectrum Auction Authority," as well as his August 2023 blog post, "Commissioner Carr to Congress: Renew FCC's Auction Authority."

Report Shows U.S. Needs to Allocate and Harmonize More Mid-Spectrum for Wireless Use

On February 7, CTIA released a report by Accenture titled "Advancing U.S. Wireless Excellence – The Case for Global Spectrum Harmonization." The report itself is excellent in describing both the economic benefits of allocating mid-band spectrum for commercial wireless use and the benefits of harmonizing U.S. spectrum allocations in the mid-band range with other nations. 

But to reap those benefits, the U.S. needs to maintain its leading role by making more mid-band spectrum available. In its report, Accenture found that, as of 2023, the five leading countries in mid-band spectrum availability dedicated an average of 652 MHz to commercial wireless use. But the U.S. faced a 202 MHz mid-band spectrum deficit compared to those nations. Accenture projects that in the year 2027, the five leading nations will dedicate an average of 970 MHz of mid-band spectrum to commercial wireless use. But due to the lack of spectrum in the pipeline in the U.S., our nation's spectrum deficit will grow to 520 MHz in 2027.

 

Accenture identifies the 3.3-3.45 GHz band, the 4.4-4.94 GHz band, and the 7.125-8.5 GHz band as ideal for commercial use and global spectrum harmonization. As explained in the report, spectrum harmonization could benefit U.S. consumers and businesses to the tune of tens of billions of dollars: 

Spectrum harmonization can standardize network equipment and wireless device production, resulting in less market variation in radio requirements for these technologies. With more harmonization, fewer variations of network radios and wireless devices must be produced, and complex devices that support a wide range of frequencies can be simplified. These efficiencies result in cost savings for end users and drive additional downstream benefits (e.g., accelerated network deployment, earlier adoption of industry use cases, etc.) unlocking approximately $23B-$44B in value for industry and consumers over the next 10 years. Additionally, harmonization will improve network performance through minimized downtime, reduced interference, and better roaming.

And the Accenture report estimates that the overall economic benefits of industry expansion, innovation, and job creation from future U.S. leadership in a more harmonized wireless ecosystem total between $125 billion and $155 billion over a decade. 

But the U.S. will miss out if it fails to promptly replenish the spectrum pipeline with mid-band spectrum for licensed commercial wireless use. On January 2 of this year, Free State Foundation Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long submitted public comments to the NTIA regarding the agency's implementation of the National Spectrum Strategy. As explained in FSF's comments, although the NTIA's November 13, 2023 Strategy identifies 2,786 MHz of spectrum for study, that is no guarantee that a single megahertz actually will be dedicated for commercial wireless use and the Strategy "fails to tackle the difficult work necessary to rationally balance government and commercial demands for this high-value, limited resource." FSF's comments conclude: "The reality… is that NTIA must embrace the challenging work required to identify – and in fact repurpose – government-held spectrum that would better serve our nation's interests were it put to commercial use, whether on a licensed or unlicensed basis. And do so in a timely manner." 

For more, see my November 2023 blog post, "NTIA Releases National Spectrum Strategy, But Pipeline Remains Empty."

NTIA Releases National Spectrum Strategy, But Pipeline Remains Empty

On November 13, the NTIA released its National Spectrum Strategy (NSS). The document's release in advance of the December 31, 2023 deadline set by the White House is welcome as far as it goes. However, at the same time, the NSS doesn't appear to move the ball forward in any practical sense because it doesn't actually designate any spectrum for repurposing but instead simply identifies five bands for future studying – of up to two years – for "potential repurposing." There is a widely-acknowledged pressing need to dedicate more spectrum for commercial wireless services, but from a reading of the NSS it appears that the empty spectrum pipeline won't be replenished anytime soon.

The matter of most immediate importance covered in the National Spectrum Strategy is its first "pillar": "A Spectrum Pipeline to Ensure U.S. Leadership in Advanced and Emerging Technologies." The NSS selected five different spectrum bands totaling 2,786 megahertz (MHz) of spectrum for "in-depth near term study to determine suitability for potential repurposing to address the nation's ever-evolving needs." According to the NSS, "[t]hese spectrum bands are a mix of Federal and shared Federal/non-Federal bands—with an emphasis on mid-band frequencies—that will be studied for a variety of uses, including terrestrial wireless broadband, innovative space services, and unmanned aviation and other autonomous vehicle operations." Those five bands are: (1) Lower 3 GHz (3.1-3.45 GHz); (2) 5030-5091 MHz; (3) 7125-8400 MHz; (4) 18.1-18.6 GHz; and (5) 37.0-37.6 GHz. 

 

Additional "pillars" in the NSS address long-term planning for supporting spectrum use, improving spectrum access and efficiency through innovation and emerging technologies, and future spectrum-related workforce development. The NSS states that the NTIA's next step is to develop an Implementation Plan for carrying out the objectives identified in the report. That Implementation Plan reportedly will be completed within 120 days of the release of the NSS. A Presidential Memorandum issued on November 13 states that the Plan will include a schedule for detailed studies of the selected bands to be completed within 2 years of the submission of the NSS or within 2 years of receipt of funding for agency studies under the Spectrum Pipeline Act of 2015.

 

The 2015 Act ought to serve as a reminder that spectrum resource needs have long been recognized, but the federal progress on actually addressing those needs, across multiple Administrations, has been slow. Hopefully, the Implementation Plan will likewise be submitted ahead of schedule and the spectrum band studies also are completed rapidly so that significant progress finally becomes discernable and spectrum is actually repurposed to support 5G and future 6G services. Until then, the spectrum pipeline remains empty.

 

In April of this year, Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I submitted comments to the NTIA in its Development of a National Spectrum Strategy proceeding. See also my April 18 blog post, "FSF Calls for Fast Action on Mid-Band Spectrum." FSF scholars will have more to say in the near future on the NSS and spectrum policy. 

Early Activation of Extra Licensed C-band Spectrum Will Enhance 5G Services and Competition

On August 14, Verizon announced that it has gained access to all of the C-band spectrum that it acquired through the FCC's spectrum license auction in March 2021. And today, August 16, it is reported that AT&T has doubled its available licensed C-band spectrum for 5G deployment. Apparently, the C-band spectrum for both providers was cleared ahead of schedule. Consumers will benefit from the network coverage and performance improvements enabled by the activation of valuable C-band (3.7 GHz) spectrum. And this development should enhance the overall competitiveness of the wireless market.

In an October 2022 blog post, I noted findings by OpenSignal that activation of C-band spectrum was leading to improved speeds for Verizon's and AT&T's respective 5G network services. And now with additional C-band spectrum available for use, Verizon and AT&T will significantly boost the speeds and capacity of their 5G service offerings. According to a Verizon press release:

Verizon won C-Band licenses for between 140-200 MHz in all available markets, and began deploying 60 MHz in the first 46 areas in 2022. As the additional spectrum has been cleared by satellite companies outside of the first 46 areas, Verizon has been able to deploy 5G Ultra Wideband using a portion of its licensed bandwidth in many more markets coast to coast. Now, with final clearance from the satellite incumbents, Verizon will be able to use the entirety of its licensed C-band spectrum, an average of 161 MHz coast to coast with some markets accessing a full 200 MHz. Verizon has been deploying equipment that is capable of the full 200MHz of bandwidth, so with a mere software update, customers will start to see the effects of this dramatic increase in bandwidth in the immediate next few days and weeks.

And as observed a news article in FierceWireless, AT&T combines C-band spectrum with 3.45 GHz spectrum nationwide, and its 5G mid-band network now covers over 175 million people, and its nationwide 5G network, including low-band spectrum, covers approximately 290 million people. 

Verizon's press release states its 5G services currently are available to over 222 million people in 359 markets. It also is reported in FierceWireless that Verizon will be operating its 5G network using C-band spectrum at full power in the vicinity of airports. Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I wrote about the FAA's questionable late-in-the-game attempt to halt full use of licensed C-band spectrum by Verizon and AT&T in a November 2021 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "The FAA Should Stop Interfering With 5G in the C-Band." The FCC has "unified jurisdiction and regulatory power" over commercial spectrum, not the FAA. And that midnight hour dispute regarding C-band spectrum near airports almost certainly would have been avoided had the FAA been more engaged earlier in the Commission's C-band proceeding, when it had ample opportunity to do so. Interagency disputes over spectrum have been too numerous in recent years, and the effect of those disputes is detrimental to the full use of valuable spectrum and timely deployment of next-generation wireless services. As President May and I also wrote a February 2022 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "Congress Should Require Better Agency Coordination of Spectrum Policy."

Research on 5G and Radar in Lower 3 GHz Spectrum Band Supports Commercial Use

Today, August 15, CTIA released a fascinating short paper that makes the case for authorizing commercial use of the 3.3-3.45 GHz band at full power and on an exclusive licensed basis. The paper, "Successful Military Radar and 5G Coexistence in the Lower 3 GHz Band: Evidence from Around the World," summarizes research from GSMA, CCS Insight, and DLA Piper regarding the co-existence of 5G services with U.S. military radars in the lower 3 GHz band in foreign countries such as Germany, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Taiwan.

According to CTIA's paper:

This real-world evidence demonstrates how proven coordination methods are already facilitating simultaneous use of the band by 5G and military radars. Segmenting the band at 3.3 GHz with commercial wireless operating above and military radars tuning below can facilitate near-term coexistence. Coordination techniques—such as retuning, compression, and frequency coordination—provide assurance that 5G networks can be deployed in the U.S. at full power in lower 3 GHz spectrum while maintaining the ability to meet critical government missions that depend on radar systems.

The U.S. needs more mid-band spectrum for commercial use, particularly on an exclusive licensed basis, and to help meet those needs, Congress and the NTIA should prioritize the repurposing spectrum in the lower 3 GHz band. For more on this, see my February 2021 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "Fast Action on the Lower 3 GHz Band Will Secure America's 5G Future." The coexistence of 5G and U.S. military radar operations in foreign countries identified in CTIA's paper persuasively favors repurposing the 3.3-3.45 GHz band for private commercial use. If 5G and military radar coexist in other countries, they can and should be made to coexist in the U.S. 

 

Also, in order to put lower 3 GHz band spectrum into the hands of private commercial providers of 5G services, the FCC's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions needs to be restored. The House of Representatives should promptly pass H.R. 3565 – the Spectrum Auction Reauthorization Act of 2023. If it becomes law, H.R. 3565 would restore that authority to the Commission. 

FCC's Unreasonable Delay in Withholding 2.5 GHz Band Spectrum Licenses

In a July 19 blog post published by the Federalist Society, Joel Thayer made a convincing case that the FCC has statutory authority under of the Communications Act to issue licenses in the 2.5 GHz spectrum band to 2022 auction bid-winner T-Mobile, despite the expiration of the Commission's spectrum auction authority on March 1, 2023. Consider this also: The FCC's failure to issue to T-Mobile numerous licenses that it won and paid for pursuant to Commission rules appears to constitute agency action "unlawfully withheld or unreasonably delayed" under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). 

The point of this blog post is not to address whether or not litigation should be pursued in this matter. Rather, the point is to show how the APA and court precedents regarding unreasonable delay and mandamus relief bring into sharper focus the Commission's affirmative legal duty to issue to T-Mobile the 2.5 GHz spectrum licenses. The agency should carry out its duty by promptly issuing the licenses.

 

Repurposing spectrum – especially mid-band (1 GHz to 7 GHz) spectrum – is essential for supporting 5G wireless services. The Commission recognized this when it adopted a 2019 order to put more 2.5 GHz band spectrum into the hands of wireless broadband providers to offer services using that spectrum. And in March 2022, the agency issued a public notice that set procedures by which it would conduct a competitive bidding auction and offer 2.5 GHz spectrum licenses to winning bidders. In August 2022, the FCC concluded its 2.5 GHz band auction, and the agency thereafter announced that over 7,800 county-sized licenses were won by 63 bidders. T-Mobile won over 7,100 such licenses. And by late September 2022, T-Mobile submitted long-form applications and paid $304 million to the FCC for those licenses.

Following the expiration of the FCC's spectrum license auction authority on March 1 of this year, the position of the Commission appears to be that it now lacks authority to issue the 2.5 GHz licenses to T-Mobile, even though T-Mobile has paid for them. However, Mr. Thayer's legal analysis makes a strong showing that the Commission still has authority to issue licenses to T-Mobile pursuant to Sections 307(a) as well as its special temporary authority (STA) contained in Sections 307(c) and 309(c)(2). 

 

If the FCC possesses the authority to issue the 2.5 GHz licenses, I suggest the agency also has a legal obligation to do so. Under the circumstances, the FCC's refusal to issue those licenses to T-Mobile appears to constitute an unreasonable delay by the agency in carrying out its duty, under Section 307(a) and the Commission's rules and procedures.  

 

Section 706(1) of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) authorizes courts to "compel agency action unlawfully withheld or unreasonably delayed." According to the Supreme Court in Norton v. South Utah Wilderness Alliance (2004), "the only agency action that can be compelled under the APA is action legally required." As the court explained in Norton, "the APA carried forward the traditional practice" of writs of mandamus as codified in the All Writs Act. 

 

Decisions by the D.C. Circuit such as American Hospital Association v. Burwell (2016) treat mandamus petitions under the All Writs Act in conjunction with, or interchangeably with, agency delay claims under Section 706(1) of the APA. To establish the court's jurisdiction and entitlement to mandamus relief, a plaintiff must show: (1) that it has a clear right to the relief requested; (2) that the defendant agency has a clear, non-discretionary duty – owned specifically to the plaintiff – to perform the act in question; and (3) no other adequate remedy exists.

 

According to the D.C. Circuit in In re Core Communications (2008), if those requirements are satisfied, "[t]he central question in evaluating 'a claim of unreasonable delay' is whether the agency's delay is so egregious as to warrant mandamus." The D.C. Circuit applies, on a case-specific basis, one or more factors set forth in TRAC v. FCC (1984) – also known as the "TRAC factors" as "useful guidance" as to whether a delay warrants mandamus. In Burwell, the court stated that "in situations where plaintiffs allege that agency delay is unreasonable despite the absence of a specific statutory deadline, the entire TRAC factor analysis may go to the threshold jurisdictional question: does the agency's delay violate a clear duty?"

 

Section 307(a) of the Communications Act states that if "public convenience, interest, or necessity is served thereby" the FCC "shall grant" to any applicant a "station license." By complying with the FCC's requirements in winning the 2.5 GHz spectrum licenses at auction and timely making payment, T-Mobile has a clear right to those licenses. The Commission now has a clear and non-discretionary duty to issue them. If the agency continues to fail to issue the licenses, or at least grant the special temporary authority that T-Mobile has requested, there appears to be no remedy available other than mandamus and Section 706(1) that would achieve the result of putting those withheld licenses into the hands of the party that won and paid for them. 

 

T-Mobile reasonably relied to its detriment on the Commission's rules, the 2019 order, and the agency's auction procedures. And T-Mobile is materially prejudiced by the agency's indefinite withholding of licenses worth $304 million, as it is being denied the benefit of using the spectrum to offer 5G services to consumers. Thus, all the elements for mandamus relief based on a claim of agency action unlawfully withheld or unreasonably delayed are present. 

 

None of this is to suggest that litigation should be necessary to resolve the problem posed by the FCC's withholding of 2.5 GHz licenses that T-Mobile won at auction. But it does suggest that the APA's "unlawfully withheld/unreasonably delayed" provision offers a useful lens for discerning the Commission's obligation to issue licenses that were validly won at auction and timely purchased. Indeed, it suggests that the case for the Commission to act by issuing the 2.5 GHz licenses, or at least granting T-Mobile's request for special temporary authority, and enabling use for 5G services is stronger than the case for the agency to continue doing nothing except hang onto the money of a private party that followed the rules. 

A Strong Future for 5G Requires More Mid-Band Spectrum

On July 13, CTIA released a report titled, "The State of 5G: Evaluating Progress and Charting the Path Forward." The State of 5G Report highlights the rapid speed of 5G network deployment – outpacing deployment of 4G LTE networks – strong consumer adoption of 5G by U.S. consumers, the benefits of fixed wireless access (FWA) in providing residential broadband and closing the digital divide, innovative uses cases for 5G for medical, agricultural and other industries, 5G network reliability and security, and job creation enabled by 5G networks.

Additionally, the State of 5G Report states that "5G is at an inflection point: While initial deployments have achieved a solid footing, attention now turns to the scaling-up of applications and ensuring capacity is available to meet growing demand." Moreover, 5G home broadband service "requires more spectrum to scale up to its potential as a nationwide home broadband competitor. Today operators only offer this service in areas with sufficient capacity to provide reliable quality of service. Without more spectrum, the opportunity for FWA to scale and meet demand for a home broadband alternative to cable will likely be foregone."

 

The report cites estimates that the U.S. will need at least 400 MHz of additional mid-band spectrum to supply projected demand in 5 years, and also need nearly 1,500 MHz in 10 years. Yet the report also observes, correctly, that there are no planned spectrum auctions in the works. The FCC already has allocated significant amounts of spectrum for unlicensed uses, including Wi-Fi. But significant amounts of spectrum remain under federal agency control, and action is needed to put more spectrum into commercial use on an exclusive licensed basis. As Free State Foundation President Randolph May and Senior Fellow Andrew Long have written about on several occasions, the Commission's authority to conduct spectrum license auctions has lapsed and it needs to be restored. To date, Congress has not succeeded in passing legislation to restore the FCC's spectrum license auction authority.  

 

The report identifies things that must be done in order to ensure that the U.S. maintains its economic competitiveness and national security when it comes to 5G services. It cites estimates that the U.S. will need at least 400 MHz of additional mid-band spectrum to supply projected demand in 5 years, and also need nearly 1,500 MHz in 10 years. But as the report observes, today there are no planned spectrum auctions for spectrum licenses. 

 

The report also states that U.S. support for proposals to new mobile allocations for 1,490 MHz of spectrum located between 4.8 GHz and 10.5 GHz, both at the November 2023 World Radio Conference and domestically, would put the U.S. in prime position for the 5G future. 

As I have written in prior blog posts, Congress can do its part in securing a strong 5G future for the U.S. by taking up and passing the Spectrum Auction Reauthorization Act of 2023 – H.R. 3565. The Act, if passed into law, would restore the FCC's statutory authority to hold spectrum license auctions. Additionally, the Act would authorize the NTIA to study the feasibility of making 4 GHz band and 7/8 GHz band available for commercial use on an exclusive or shared basis. 

Ericsson Reports on Present and Future Growth of Mobile Services

The June 2023 edition of the "Ericsson Mobility Report" was released on June 23. The updated report features high-level view of global and regional developments and trends in mobile data services as well as projected growth forecasts. Although the June 2023 report does not include any figures specific to the United States, it does contain many useful insights regarding mobile data traffic increases, progress in 5G deployment, and potential growth in fixed wireless access (FWA) for the globe and for North America.

Among the report's findings, "[t]he uptake of 5G subscriptions in North America has been stronger than expected," and year's-end 2022 it had the highest 5G subscription penetration at 41%. Included in the report is a chart showing the disappearance of legacy 3G services in North America and strong growth in 4G LTE as well as 5G. Yet although 4G subscriptions increased in 2022, the report expects those numbers to decline starting this year. According to the report's projection, in 2028, North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 91%.

The report credits the use of mid-band spectrum in North American for strong 5G services growth, and it expects there to be over 250 million subscriptions by the end of this year. And the report projects there to be about 410 million 5G subscriptions by 2028. Important to this 5G growth is FWA services. The report observes that "FWA, providing high-speed internet to homes and small businesses, has become the primary technology fueling fixed broadband growth in North America." 

 

Moreover, the report projects that average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone in North American will rise to 58 GB in 2029, and it credits this to unlimited data plans and improved 5G network capacity supporting new mobile and FWA 5G subscribers. 

 

Notably, the report also found that monthly global mobile data traffic reached 126 exabytes (EB) by the first quarter of this year – nearly double what it was just two years prior.  

 

But in order to fully support projected future increases in mobile data traffic in the U.S. – as well as support potential stronger-than-expected growth in 5G services – more spectrum will need to be made available for private commercial use. Now that the U.S. spectrum pipeline for commercial wireless services has run empty and the FCC's authority for conducting competitive bidding spectrum license auctions has lapsed, the clear policy priority should be to replenish the pipeline with more mid-band spectrum from commercial licensing and to renew the Commission's authority conduct auctions and license spectrum use on an exclusive basis.