House Passes Bill for 6G Task Force and Report

On April 28, the U.S. House of Representatives passed, by a unanimous voice vote, H.R. 2449 – the "Future Uses of Technology Upholding Reliable and Enhanced Networks Act" or the "Future Networks Act." Sponsored by Rep. Doris Matsui and co-sponsored by Reps. Rick Allen and Tim Walberg, the Future Networks Act, if it were to be passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump, would direct the FCC's Chairman to appoint a "6G Task Force" that would prepare and send to Congress a report on developing standards, uses, and related issues involving future 6G wireless networks. 

Under the bill, the members of the 6G Task Force would include representatives of the communications industry, public interest organizations or academic institutions, and representatives of federal, state, local, and tribal governments. The Future Networks Act requires that, within 180 days of the 6G Task Force being established, the group prepare a draft report on 6G wireless technology. The draft report would be published on the FCC's website and in the Federal Register for public comment Following the public comment period, and within 1 year of the 6G Task Force being established, the group would publish their final report and submit it to House and Senate Committees. 

The development of 6G technologies, standards, and spectrum policies no doubt will be a multi-faceted and complex undertaking. A future 6G report by the type of task force proposed in the Future Networks Act could serve as a valuable storehouse of knowledge for Congress, the FCC, and the Executive Branch and help pave the way for a successful eventual launch of 6G wireless networks. Now that the Future Networks Act has passed the House, the Senate should give the bill due consideration. 

 

In an April 2023 blog post, Free State Foundation President Randolph May identified the restoration of the FCC's authority to conduct competitive bidding spectrum license auctions as essential for future 6G network deployment. However, in the near term, there are many opportunities for expanding 5G networks by repurposing spectrum from government use to private use. Seizing those opportunities depends not only on a replenished spectrum pipeline but revival of the Commission's auction authority. The 119th Congress should restore the FCC’s authority on spectrum license auctions and encourage timely replenishment of the spectrum pipeline. 

TMT with Mike O'Rielly - Ep 18: The Next Broadcast TV Standard

Episode 18 of "TMT with Mike O'Rielly," a videocast featuring former FCC Commissioner and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Free State Foundation Michael O'Rielly, was released on February 21. In this episode, titled "The Creation & Status of the Next Broadcast Television Standard," Mr. O'Rielly has a conversation with guest Madeleine Noland, President, ATSC – The Broadcast Standards Association. 

Their conversation covers the ongoing transition from ATSC 1.0 to the next-gen broadcast TV standard of ATSC 3.0. Mr. O'Rielly and Ms. Noland touch on topics such as ATSC 3.0 capabilities, including picture enhancements, ATSC 3.0-capable devices (TVs and converter boxes), current coverage status, as well as channel sharing arrangements to enable simulcasts. 

A Record-Breaking Year for Fiber Broadband Buildout

On December 13, the Fiber Broadband Association (FBA) filed a brief report with the FCC, "The State of the North American Fiber Deployment." As observed in the report, from September 2023 to September 2024, all-fiber broadband network availability to U.S. households climbed 13% to 76.5 million households. During that period, there reportedly was a record annual growth in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), totaling 10.3 million households. Additionally, all-fiber availability has grown from less than 40% of households in 2020 to almost 60% today. The report acknowledges the significant buildout efforts by several providers, including AT&T, which reportedly plans to reach 50 million households with fiber by the end of 2029. 

The 13% year-to-year fiber passing figure is remarkable and benefits consumers with access to significantly improved broadband Internet service capabilities compared to older-generation networks. It is widely acknowledged that fiber broadband networks are capacious and readily capable of delivering gigabit download speeds that easily meet the FCC's current benchmarks for defining broadband Internet services (currently 100 Mbps upload/20 Mbps download). 

 

FBA filed the report in the FCC's proceeding for the forthcoming 2024 Communications Marketplace Competition report, due by the end of this year. In June of this year, the Free State Foundation filed public comments in the Commission's proceeding, and in July, FSF filed reply comments. In those comments, FSF President Randolph May and I argued that there is compelling evidence that the broadband market is effectively competitive. The report filed by FBA provides further confirming evidence for FSF's view.

 

Credit goes to the super-informed and knowledgeable Ted Hearn of Policyband for calling attention to FBA's filing.

Fixed Wireless Services Made Big Strides in 2023

On January 25, it was reported that T-Mobile added 541,000 fixed wireless access (FWA) subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2023. T-Mobile reportedly gained about 2.1 million subscribers to its 5G-enabled FWA residential broadband Internet services in 2023. Also, it was reported that Verizon gained 375,000 FWA subscribers in the fourth quarter of last year. According to reports, upwards of 80% of Verizon’s FWA subscriber additions are served in markets where Verizon obtained mid-band spectrum through the Commission's C-Band spectrum license auction. All told, T-Mobile and Verizon have a combined total of nearly 8 million FWA subs, with T-Mobile having about 4.78 million.

Importantly, AT&T launched its FWA services mid-way through 2023. AT&T is just getting started and it reportedly gained 67,000 FWA subscribers in the fourth quarter, bringing AT&T's total up to about 93,000. 

FWA has perhaps been the biggest breakthrough in the broadband internet services market to take place since the FCC released its Restoring Internet Freedom Order in 2018. Market entry by three nationwide FWA providers provides an ideal platform for accessing broadband in many rural areas. And in many cases, FWA entry boosts the number of fixed broadband access competitors for Americans in local markets already served by cable, fiber, and satellite broadband services. 

 

In the RIF Order, the Commission "conclude[d] that reclassification of broadband Internet access service from Title II to Title I is likely to increase ISP investment and output." The launch and rapid rollout of FWA is a critical output and it has been enabled by heavy capital investment, including investment in spectrum licenses won at competitive bidding auctions. 

 

On January 17, Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I filed reply comments in the FCC's Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet proceeding. In those reply comments, we recommended that the Commission keep the free market-oriented, light-touch regulatory framework for broadband Internet services established under the RIF Order. In FSF's reply comments, we quoted many of the doomsday predictions made by pro-public utility regulation supporters about how the Internet would grind to a slow halt or stop and everyday users would be shuffled off into Internet slow lanes while fat cats would ride high on Internet fast lanes. None of that ever happened. In fact, the opposite happened, as speeds have continued to increase since early 2018 and next-generation broadband services like FWA deployed nationwide to boost access and competition. 

Fiber Broadband Affordability Improved in 2022

A February 21 article in FierceTelecom by Masha Abarinova highlights survey findings by research firm Cowen that fiber broadband is more affordable and accessible to U.S. residential users. According to article, "Cowen found the average income of a FTTH [fiber-to-the-home] subscriber was around $83,000, compared to approximately $85,000 for those not subscribed to fiber." In other words, for the first time, "income for FTTH subscribers is lower than income for non-FTTH subscribers." Thus, it seems that fiber broadband is becoming more broadly affordable for Americans. And as the article observed, the Cowen survey found that fiber speeds continue to rise: "The survey showed FTTH subscribers received an average speed of 579 Mbps, whereas non-fiber customers are getting an average 419 Mbps. Notably, the 579 Mbps average fiber broadband download speed figure for the fourth quarter 2022 is up from 429 Mbps for fiber in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The Cowen survey constitutes another positive data point regarding broadband affordability in the U.S. In a series of blog posts from 2022, Free State Foundation scholars called attention to broadband affordability figures provided by different outlets:

• Seth L. Cooper, "New Study Touts the Affordability of Mobile Broadband In America," FSF Blog (November 30, 2022).
• Seth L. Cooper, "In the Face of Inflation, Prices Fall for Internet and Wireless Services," FSF Blog (October 14, 2022). 
• Andrew Long, "2022 USTelecom Broadband Pricing Report: Further Proof that Competition is Benefitting Consumers," FSF Blog (June 30, 2022)
• Andrew Magloughlin, "Dropping Consumer Broadband Prices Indicate Lack of Market Power," FSF Blog (May 13, 2022). 
• Seth L. Cooper, "Study Indicates Broadband Internet Service Prices Have Fallen the Last Five Years," FSF Blog (February 11, 2022). 

Acknowledging the significant difficulties posed to new investment and consumer buying power by reckless federal government-induced inflation, ongoing fiber deployments are likely to markedly improve the fiber access and affordability in 2023. A February 24 article FierceTelecom article by Diana Goovaerts provides a round-up of expected fiber deployments by broadband providers for this year, including FierceTelecom's admittedly underinclusive minimumprojection of 6.5 million to 7 million new fiber passings in the U.S. for 2023. 

Charter Announces Big Plan for Deploying Ultra-Fast 10G Broadband

According to news reports, Charter Communications is now implementing a three-year "10G" broadband network upgrade plan that will significantly expand multi-gig broadband service availability and enhance the market's competitiveness. The reported goal of Charter's plan is to make 5 Gbps download speeds available to 85% of its geographic footprint and to make 10 Gbps download speeds available for its top tier service. Charter will be upgrading its existing coaxial cable broadband network by implementing DOCSIS 4.0 technology. And it is reported that Charter will spend $10.65 in total capital expenditures next year, with $6.5 to $6.8 billion allocated for its network upgrade. 

The unveiling of Charter's "10G" plan follows Comcast's announcement of its own 10G deployment plan earlier this fall – as discussed in my September 9 blog post.

 

Cable broadband provider's "10G" platform is a competitor to high-speed fiber broadband networks. Free State Foundation Senior Fellow Andrew Long has written about the potential of cable's next-generation networks in his September 2020 Perspectives from FSF Scholars, "'10 G' Can Help Future-Proof Broadband Infrastructure" as well as in his October 2020 blog post, "Study Predicts that Cable '10G' Platform Will Generate Substantial Economic Benefits." Also, it is worth noting that cable networks are themselves fiber-laden. According to public comments filed by NCTA for the FCC's forthcoming 2022 Communications Marketplace Report, high-speed cable broadband networks "contain 550,000 route miles of fiber-optic cable. Using these fiber-rich facilities, data traveling to or from a cable customer is using fiber for 98-99% of the route." 

 

Notably, Charter is reported to also have a plan to expand its geographic footprint in 2023 and beyond. It is reported that Charter is reaching an additional 1 million new locations, backed by funding from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund. And Charter apparently has won grants from states for passing another 160,000 locations, with other potential grant awards soon to follow through programs such as the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment Act (BEAD) Program. For these rural buildouts, Charter reportedly is increasing its capital expenditures over prior years.

 

These significate private network investments – albeit supplemented by subsidies – will help reach unserved and underserved areas. Congress, the NTIA, and the FCC ought to continue promoting a pro-innovation, pro-investment, market-oriented environment by avoiding unnecessary new network management regulation, seeking ways to remove or encourage removal of local barriers to construction of new and upgraded infrastructure, as well as by conducting close and coordinated oversight of the many broadband subsidy programs to ensure that dollars are targeted to truly unserved and underserved areas in American. 

FCC Should Stand by Its Rules and Its 2020 Ligado Order

Ligado Networks submitted an ex parte letter to the FCC on November 16, calling for a denial of Iridium's petition for a stay of the Commission's 2020 L-Band Order. The long-delayed 2020 order approved deployment next-generation wireless services in valuable L-band spectrum. The Commission should deny the petition because it lacks legal support and there is no risk of immediate harm to Iridium.  

As Free State Foundation President Randolph May and I have previously explained, the 2020 order authorizing Ligado to deploy a hybrid satellite-terrestrial wireless network using its licensed L-band spectrum followed an extraordinarily lengthy, careful process. The resulting decision was informed by technical analysis by FCC staff engineers and based on agency rules defining "harmful interference." And it was fully compliant with the Administrative Procedures Act. The order contains tailored safeguards against potential harmful signal interference with incumbent operators in adjacent spectrum bands, including specific signal power limits and other remediation measures.

Iridium's stay petition states that its operations could be subject to interference from Ligado's network. It claims that its petition is supported by a September 2022 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) report that reviewed the record in the FCC's L-band proceeding. Notably, no new testing was conducted for the NAS report. More importantly, and as Ligado pointed out in its responsive letter, the NAS report expressly relied on the report authors' own definition of "harmful interference" – and not on the Commission's rules defining "harmful interference." Thus, the NAS report made no determination about whether Ligado's network would cause "harmful interference" according to the Commission's rules. And, further to the point, the NAS report acknowledged that it was not making an evaluation of the correctness of Commission's decision in the 2020 order. 

 

Iridium's stay petition amounts to asking the Commission to disregard its own rules defining "harmful interference." But the Commission should stick to its rules as well as its careful decision from 2020 based on those rules.

 

Additionally, Ligado has publicly stated that it is not going to deploy its terrestrial wireless operations in the L-band while it negotiates with NTIA over these matters. Iridium is therefore facing no immediate harm. In sum, the case for a stay on the 2020 order is without merit. 

Fiber Broadband is Going Strong in 2022

Third quarter 2022 reports from broadband Internet service providers show continued strong growth in fiber broadband networks. According to reports released in late October and early November for the third quarter:  

• AT&T Fiber had 338,000 net subscriber additions, and it now has 6.93 million fiber broadband subscribers. 
• Verizon gained 61,000 FiOS Internet subscribers – compared to a gain of 36,000 FiOS subscribers during the second quarter of this year – for a total of nearly 6.68 million FiOS subscribers. 
• Lumen added 31,000 fiber broadband subscribers – up significantly from and raised its total fiber subscriber count at the end of the third quarter of this year to 889,000, up from 774,000 at the end of the third quarter of 2021. 
• Frontier added 66,000 fiber broadband customers, a 15.8% growth rate compared to the third quarter of 2021, bringing its fiber broadband customer total to 1.5 million. 

In addition to these fiber broadband subscriber gains, broadband ISPs have continued to deploy fiber to reach many more potential subscribers. For instance, AT&T reported that "AT&T Fiber now has the ability to serve 18.5 million customer locations, and offers symmetrical speeds up to 5-Gigs across parts of its entire footprint of more than 100 metro areas." And Frontier reported that it "[b]uilt fiber to a record 351,000 locations to reach a total of 4.8 million fiber locations, nearly halfway to our target of 10 million fiber locations." 

 

As noted in my August 24 blog post, fiber networks offer high speeds than older technologies. The third quarter results just released by broadband ISPs reveal that even more American are benefitting from fiber networks. 

Vast Majority of U.S. Consumers Now Buying 5G-Capable Smartphones

According to a March 16 press release by Counterpoint, sales of 5G-capable smartphones reached 51% of global smartphone sales in January 2022, overtaking sales of 4G-capable smartphones. But 5G smartphone sales penetration reached 73% in North America in January of this year.  

While 5G smartphone sales are now predominant, 4G connections till outnumber 5G connections. But as Free State Foundation Legal Fellow Andrew Magloughlin and I point out in our Perspectives from FSF Scholars published earlier this year titled "The Broadband Internet Services Market in January 2022," growth for 4G LTE has already peaked. As we observe in our Perspectives, 5G Americas projects that 5G will constitute the majority of mobile connections in 2024. And if future 5G connections figures match trends in 5G smartphone sales, it is a safe bet that North America – and the U.S., in particular – will be a majority 5G-connected nation sooner than the global average. 

 

In our Perspectives, Mr. Maglouglin and I point out that "[o]ne of the most significant developments in the broadband Internet services market in 2020 and 2021 was the rapid rollout of 5G wireless networks and accelerated adoption of 5G services by U.S. consumers." Continuing rapid deployment of 5G networks -- evidenced by January 2022 sales penetration figures for North America provided by Counterpoint -- is important to the welfare of U.S. consumers because "5G networks are more capacious than 4G LTE networks and they are expected to eventually deliver average speeds about ten times faster than LTE networks, with peak speeds as much as 100 times faster."

Data Shows 5G Network Connections Surge in 2020

A March 25 press release by 5G Americas titled "5G Achieves Mass Market Appeal" summarizes year-end progress in next-generation network deployment for North America and for the globe. According to the press release, which is based on data collected by Omdia, worldwide 5G connections grew to 401 million last year, with a rate of adoption three times faster than 4G LTE adoption. Although the press release didn't include country-specific totals, it did touch on 5G deployment in the for region consisting of the U.S. and Canada:

Broken down regionally, North America had 19.96 million 5G connections and 499 million LTE connections by the end of Q4 2020. For the region, this amounts to a 4098% annual growth in 5G, and a gain of over 19.5 million 5G connections over the year. Meanwhile, 4G LTE gained over 22 million connections in 2020, which represents 4.7% growth.

Additionally, Omdia forecasted that 5G will reach 451 million in North America by the end of 2025. For more findings and forecasts, see 5G America's press release.

Federal Policy Should Promote 5G Deployment by Market Providers

American success in 5G absolutely depends on strong investment & innovation by private marketplace providers. Any attempt by the federal government to build its own nationwide 5G network would sap the vitality of next-gen wireless services in the U.S. https://t.co/ayZiXSqjKe

— Seth Cooper (@CooperFSF) September 22, 2020

MEDIA ADVISORY: The FCC Should Be Commended for Holding ORAN Forum

Regarding the FCC's forum today regarding ORAN (open radio access networks), the following statement may be attributed to Free State Foundation President Randolph May: 

The FCC should be commended for holding the forum today exploring ORAN, what it means, and what it may portend for the future. Even discounting the usual hype accompanying new technological advances and business models, ORAN, properly understood, holds the promise to promote increased marketplace competition and innovation, and, at the same time, promote U.S. national security by increasing supply chain diversity. ORAN could be a case in which technological advances associated with 5G, artificial intelligence, and virtualization, and changing business models, advance freedom in both the economic and geopolitical spheres. But this should be done largely in a context of private sector decision-making with minimal direct government intervention and mandates.

MEDIA ADVISORY: FCC Set to Vote on Ligado's Applications to Use L-Band Spectrum

Free State Foundation President Randolph May issued the following statement regarding Chairman Pai's proposed order granting, with conditions, Ligado Networks' applications to use L-Band spectrum:

Above all else, I'm pleased that Chairman Pai has circulated a draft order. For several years now, I've advocated that the FCC move ahead to make a decision on Ligado's long-pending applications. I've never professed to render any definitive opinion on the finer points of the various interference claims involved in this years-long controversy. But I know that Ligado has gone to great lengths to modify its plans to address claimed interference concerns. And have confidence in the technical expertise of FCC's engineering staff and the commissioners' willingness to take that expertise into account. So I hope the Commission now acts promptly. This is another FCC action that can advance the U.S. position with regard to 5G deployment.

Local Governments Should Promote 5G Smart Cities, Not Municipal Broadband

Despite the dismal record of financial performance by municipal broadband systems, some municipalities are moving forward with plans to build new government-run systems. Some proponents of municipal broadband point to a new report from Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center claiming that municipal systems are the “value leaders in America” because they supposedly offer service at lower prices than those from private providers.

Last month, FSF Senior Fellow Ted Bolema and I published a Perspectives from FSF Scholars entitled “A Critical Assessment of Harvard’s ‘Community-Owned Fiber Networks: Value Leaders in America’ Study,” in which we pointed out many problems with the Harvard study. But even setting aside the problems with the dubious methodology and questionable interpretation of the data from the Harvard study, municipalities that believe their residents do not have sufficient access to broadband have better options than government-run broadband. Instead of promoting municipal broadband projects, local governments should seek to streamline the implementation of 5G “smart cities,” which will provide vastly superior net economic benefits to consumers, businesses, and residents.

The Harvard study purports to find that in 23 out of 27 municipalities with community-provided broadband the government providers offered lower prices for entry-level broadband packages than the private providers. In our paper, we explain how the Harvard study’s data and methodology creates a heavy bias in favor of municipal providers.

But even if a municipal system can offer lower prices to those who subscribe to its broadband service, that does not make it a better value for its community than private broadband. Most municipal providers use taxpayer funds to subsidize the price of broadband below a profitable level, oftentimes generating massive long-term debt. That may make the price of the service attractive to potential subscribers, but the community, including the residents who do not subscribe to the municipal network, still must pay for the subsidies and the debt used to finance the project.

We point out that there are nine municipal projects that were analyzed in both the Harvard study and a University of Pennsylvania study that analyzes the financial viability of municipal broadband projects. Of those nine overlapping municipal broadband projects, at the end of 2014 four of them were cash flow negative and four of them were not on pace to be paid off within the lifetime of a broadband network, which is generally between 30 and 40 years. For example, the municipal provider in Lafayette, LA, LUS Fiber, provides the greatest cost “savings” over the first four years of service, according to the Harvard study. But Lafayette residents are on the hook for over $36 million in debt that is unlikely to be repaid with the current level of cash flows. The table below shows that municipal networks with the greatest cost “savings” also generate burdensome long-term public debt.

Results from Markets Found in Both Studies

Municipal Network	Cost “Savings” Over Four Years According to Harvard Study	Net Present Value of Municipal Broadband Project	Years until Project Turns Positive
Lafayette, LA	$600.00	-$36,086,333	Never
Morristown, TN	$324.12	-$4,281,017	Never
Clarksville, TN	$138.75	-$7,442,513	Never
Monticello, MN	$122.74	-$25,508,327	Never
Pulaski, TN	$237.24	$97,948	490
Brookings, SD	$163.13	$290,521	349
Chattanooga, TN	$107.25	$2,062,787	412
Tullahoma, TN	$19.22	$846,549	108
Bristol, TN	$79.22	$4,168,048	34

The Harvard study also does not consider all of the dynamic changes in the broadband market. For example, more people than ever are turning to mobile broadband as a substitute for fixed broadband. The future of mobile broadband is 5G wireless technology, and with at least 10 times faster speeds than 4G, 5G will make mobile broadband even more competitive with other broadband technologies. Throughout U.S. cities, mobile broadband providers are deploying small cell infrastructure for 5G wireless technology, which can target municipal areas in the same way that wireline municipal broadband does, but potentially at a much lower cost.

When 5G wireless technology is deployed, “smart cities” will be able to enjoy more efficient and effective use of local government services such as energy, utilities, transportation, and public safety, saving the cities millions of dollars. For example, smart lighting automatically will dim public street lights when no pedestrians or vehicles are present. Public transportation will be able to reduce wait times by optimizing bus and train schedules with commuter smartphones. High-speed video surveillance will allow first responders to assess crime scenes and dangerous situations before arriving.

As I discussed in a January 2017 blog, 5G wireless technology is projected to create $275 billion in investment, 3 million jobs, and $500 billion in gross domestic product throughout the United States, which should be much more attractive to local governments than the financial instability often created by municipal broadband projects. These projected net economic benefits of 5G enabled “smart cities” outweigh the net economic costs of many municipal broadband networks.

Instead of imposing long-term debt on residents by promoting municipal broadband projects, local governments should promote 5G small cell deployment. By reducing pole attachment fees, allowing the use of public rights-of-ways, and accelerating approval processes, states and municipalities can streamline the deployment of 5G technology in local areas. Not only will this relieve residents from the tax burden imposed by a municipal network, but it will help implement a next-generation network which will provide at least the same consumer benefits as municipal broadband with less financial risk to local governments.